Thread by @aprilmfranco

Great start by @utsc's Dean Gough for @utscmgmt #TradeDevWorkshop today. For those not interested in live tweets from conference, please mute.

Now, on to the research: first up, @MIT's David Atkin presented new work on estimating welfare effects of price changes when preferences are quasi-separable & Engel curves are non-linear. #TradeDevWorkshop 2/N

Big advance applicable even when not all prices are available or quality may change. Using Indian data, finds that in rural areas, lower inflation among hi income households. This helps to maintain inequality. #TradeDevWorkshop 3/N

Next, @mit's @ClaudiaSteinwen presents new research on changes in port technologies (think Marc Levinson's the Box). 1. Ports are reallocated to smaller cities (London was major hub in 1950's, but not now.) 2. Port length grows fastest in smaller cities. #TradeDevWorkshop 4/N

3, Smaller cities are more central in port networks. New container tech changed which locations would be best. (Ships were deeper.) Using these fact, they develop model that includes transshipment technology. #TradeDevWorkshop 5/N

After lunch, @Princeton's Stephen J. Redding uses data from Argentina 1870-1914 to consider effect of external integration, structural transformation on development. #TradeDevWorkshop 6/N

Some important facts during this period: population moves to be closer to leading ports (increasing density by ports). Railroads increase pop density and compositional changes within agricultural sector. #TradeDevWorkshop 7/N

Model emphasizes Balassa-Samuelson Effect - locations with better access to world markets will attract more in-migration. Using model, they can run counterfactuals which show: #TradeDevWorkshop 8/N

When international migration was "free," population would increase by 49%, while if it were restricted, population would increase only be 8%. #TradeDevWorkshop 9/N

Next, @HarvardHBS' Laura Alfaro presented new research on real exchange rate, innovation & productivity. Some important results: RER growth rate is +ly correlated with firm-level revenue based productivity growth in emerging Asian countries #TradeDevWorkshop 10/N

Negatively correlated in other developing countries, zero correlation in industrial countries. At firm-level, revenue based productivity (TFPR) growth is +ly correlated with exporters and -ly correlated with importers. #TradeDevWorkshop 11/N

Firms in emerging Asian countries are relatively more likely to export than import, and firms in other emerging countries are more likely to import. Proposed mechanism is through two channels: innovation and importation. #TradeDevWorkshop 12/N

Final paper was by @YaleSOM's Peter Schott. He studies the affect of granting permanent normal trade relations (PNTR) to China on firm outcomes using equity market reactions to policy implementation. #TradeDevWorkshop 13/N

Proposes average abnormal equity returns (AAR) to identify firm sensitivity
to trade liberalization based on event study around (PNTR). #TradeDevWorkshop 14/N

Finds abnormal average returns (AAR) are -ly related to exit, +ly related to merger in goods sector, while -ly related to exit in service sector. #TradeDevWorkshop 15/N

Overall this was great conference, attended by almost everyone in international trade in Toronto and a top notch set of speakers. Great work by @utscmgmt's @pame_medinaq and Garth Frazer! #TradeDevWorkshop 16/N

Here's a link to schedule, papers and bios: utsc.utoronto.ca/conferences/ec…
#TradeDevWorkshop 17/17

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