Thread by @BBCkatyaadler

So.. back to the backstop: Clearly the official EU line is “We’re not budging. The #Brexit Withdrawal Agreement was signed off by Theresa May and cabinet. End of story.” And there is 100% EU sincerity they would love not to have to discuss the thorny issue ever again. But.. /1

Realpolitik means EU leaders know a new UK PM will mean new #Brexit arguments - and crucially - since the EU hopes fervently to avoid no deal - it means new mathematics in Parliament. EU will watch closely to see if new PM could carry a majority for a #Brexit deal /2

To be clear: I am NOT saying here that EU will abandon the backstop if faced with strong new UK PM. EU wants to protect its single market, protect GFA and protect member state Ireland over departing member UK BUT /3

Talk is slowly returning in EU circles to the idea of “de-dramatising” the backstop. Though that precise word is hardly used bc of the toxic reaction in UK, when Michel Barnier tried the de-dramatising tactic way back when .. /4

Instead EU diplomats are currently at pains to underline that the backstop is not “a slab of marble” - meaning bits of it can be shaved away - quickly or gradually, depending on how post #Brexit trade talks progress /5

An oft cited example is: as soon as EU-UK post #Brexit deal is made on vetinary standards, that can fall away from backstop. EU aim: convert emotionally-charged backstop into a list of practical measures that can fall away at different times /6

This can be dismissed of course as transparent attempt at re-packaging same thing BUT some in EU are thinking the new UK PM may well demand a fixed end date to backstop - leading to EU thoughts of a counter-offer of a “time-tabled” backstop made up of different parts /7

Of course this idea - which will be seen as too little by some in UK - will be seen as too much by some in EU eg Ireland. But EU leaders will be weighing up immediate likelihood +pain of no deal (IF they believe the new UK PM means business) and a slightly different backstop /8

It’s been suggested to me that a time-tabled backstop could be a separate legal document added to the Withdrawal Agreement, meaning the EU could stick to its insistence on not re-opening the text. HOWEVER.. /9

Others in EU are focussing on another backstop “solution” : that the new UK PM will return to original EU idea of backstop pertaining to Northern Ireland only - thus removing opposition in Parliament from those who see a UK-wide customs union trap in backstop /10

Staunch unionists in Parliament would v much object but EU has always been keen to point out how separate NI already is in terms of laws (abortion, gay marriage and more) from rest of UK plus fact that some regulatory checks already exist in Irish Sea /11

All the above is EU game-planning of course. No one yet knows who next UK PM will be. What EU-UK discussions will look like come September, will depend on EU majority mood, Dublin stance and -crucially- the politics, credibility and parliamentary support of the new UK PM /12

EU diplomats also observe Labour creeping towards a more unequivocally Remain position. If so, Brussels’ calculation is that “could” mean Labour Leave MP’s supporting the #Brexit deal in the autumn as a way of staying true to their Leave constituents /13

But don’t expect EU to discuss background #Brexit musings at 20 June leaders’ summit. It’s an intentionally non-Brexit focussed summit. Tusk/Juncker will deliver a “progress report” on what’s been going on in UK during current Brexit extension (!!!) No EU discussion planned /14