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Peterborough by-election results shows the accuracy of @FocalDataHQ MRP analysis for @hopenothate and @BestForBritain. Our MRP suggested Labour had 30.3% support (vote was 31%), combined Brexit & Tory Party support on 48% (vote was 49%), and LD support on 15% (vote was 12%)
This makes us very confident about accuracy of our MRP data. Our analysis of polling of 15,231 people sees @UKLabour to be largest party with 251 seats, @brexitparty_uk with 135 seats, @Conservatives on 132, @theSNP on 55, @LibDems on 53' @Plaid_Cymru 5 and @TheGreenParty 1
The big takeaway from our poll is that there is no realistic path to victory for @UKLabour as long as it has its current #Brexit position. For every one vote it loses to the @brexitparty_uk it loses three votes to @LibDems and @TheGreenParty
Even in the leave voting areas, like Hemsworth and Stoke-on-Trent North, Labour still loses more of its 2017 vote to LibDem/Greens than to the Brexit Party.
@UKLabour and the @Conservatives get wiped out in Scotland, with the @theSNP winning 55 of the 59 seats if there was an election today. @LibDems win the other four
