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David Fickling
@davidfickling
, 4 tweets, 1 min read Read on Twitter
Here's the reason I suspect this doesn't work with China.

With Mexico, Trump's trade advisers don't really care.

They're just following orders and hoping they can make things go away in a manner acceptable to his ego.
So a deal where Trump gets to pretend he's extracted big concessions, AMLO gets to promote his National Guard policy, and the threats all go away in return for some vague promises works for all sides.
With China, the trade advisers really want concessions. They, not Trump, are the extremists.

Trump would be happy to announce "the biggest oil and agriculture deal this nation has ever seen" & exaggerate some vague promises from Beijing to continue its ongoing economic reforms
But it's the best and the brightest who are full of fantasies about Beijing agreeing to remake its economic system and agree humiliating unequal treaties around its freedom to retaliate to tariffs etc.

Let Trump have his deal! Build a damn Trump casino in Hainan and end this.
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David Fickling
@davidfickling
Can anyone point to a good piece of sociological-type writing on the Hong Kong Police Force and how/whether it's changed, especially since the 2014 Occupy protests?
This thread by @xinwenxiaojie touches on some if these issues.



I'm also reminded of this passage, from Graham Robb's "Parisians", about how the French CRS riot police became the bogeymen of the 1968 protests, and the class issues underlying much of that
There's been a lot of comment since 2014 about how the once-exalted status of the HKPF had diminished as they've ended up as "the tip of the sword" (to borrow a phrase from here: theatlantic.com/national/archi… ) in the battle over Hong Kong's status.
Read 9 tweets
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David Fickling
@davidfickling
Yes, I'm sure tariffs are the reason the French don't drink more American wine
Is "Ernest & Julio Gallo is dreck" technically a form of non-tariff barrier?
I do come from the land of Yellowtail so I realise I don't have huge moral standing here
Read 3 tweets
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David Fickling
@davidfickling
This gets to a key point that I think it badly underappreciated in discussions of China and IP:

Innovation isn't some fixed quantity of ideas, but a habit of work and thinking.

Without that habit, IP theft doesn't help much (thread):
To be clear, IP theft is BAD and should be prosecuted. I'm not contesting that.

What I'd like to argue is against the notion that IP theft is SCARY and some sort of fundamental threat.

If anything, it's a telling sign of weakness, and therefore IMO the opposite of scary.
We've had a lot of coverage of late of these cases where some Chinese company is accused of pilfering IP from some American company.

The multiple Huawei cases are the most prominent but the stories are widespread:

chicagotribune.com/business/ct-bi…
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MissMAGA2016
@MissMaga2016
Thread on Stanley Fischer, who's mentioned in this Grassley letter to Mnuchin.

Stanley Fischer was Federal Reserve Vice Chairman in 2015 when he met w/ Russians Maria Butina & Alexander Torshin and Nathan Sheets, then-Treasury undersecretary for international affairs

#Spygate
Fischer previously served as Governor of Bank of Israel 2005 to 2013
and Chief economist World Bank

Obama nominated him for Vice-Chair of the Fed on January 10, 2014

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Fischer had already previously served as Vice Chairman of Citigroup, President of Citigroup International, and Head of the Public Sector Client Group.

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Jason Reid
@JReidESPN
I know I should just leave this alone, but there’s so much inaccurate information surrounding the Kaepernick settlement that I feel compelled to explain a few things. First, stop conflating things. Kaepernick’s collusion grievance is separate from his activism. He legal action
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A Liberal Marine
@USMCLiberal
I never thought I’d say this, but I agree with @Scaramucci.
He makes a great point, with a rare insight into why #Trump is able to lie and maintain support.
Watch what he says on the panel of @RealTimers.
Though he could’ve phrased it better, it’s an insight we all need to hear.
I’m going to distill what #Scaramucci is saying, but add a little more detail.

Basically, it comes down to the Republicans overwhelming desire to “own the libs.”

But why?

They’ve won and they’re in power. You’d expect them to seek legitimacy in power.
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They derive pleasure and an affirmation of power, by taunting others, and getting a response.
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Christophe Barraud🛢
@C_Barraud
🇨🇳 #CHINA Q3 GDP Y/Y: 6.5% V 6.6%E (slowest growth since Q1 2009)
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🇫🇷 🇪🇺 🇨🇳 French tire maker Michelin warned of declining sales in Europe and #China in the second half of the year, dragging down shares of its competitors in the U.S. and Europe - Bloomberg
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Millennial Macro
@MillennialMacro
#demographics #militaries #economies #currencies
#USA
- Best demographics
- Largest military
- Largest economy
- Most used currency
- Liquid financial markets
- Open capital account
- Rule of law
- Best geography
- Can be self sufficient if required
- Not trade dependent
#USA
Top trade partners as of 30 June 2018:
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- Canada: 15.1%
- Mexico: 14.6%
- Japan: 5.1%
- Germany: 4.4%

The next 10 years could result in the below:
- Mexico (25%)
- Canada (20%
- Japan (7%)
- South Korea (5%)
- Great Britain (4%)
#USA
Bring the manufacturing (jobs) home while negatively impacting China's economy.
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