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There is talk - not all of it idle - about whether the EU will give time-limits, or some other concession on the Irish backstop to get a #Brexit deal over the line.
But as I argue here, fake concessions won't do the job. Here's why. 1/thread
telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/…
But as I argue here, fake concessions won't do the job. Here's why. 1/thread
telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/…
There are those like Sir Ivan Rogers who believe the EU will never actually give concessions of this kind to @BorisForeignSec because they cannot reward a PM with "trumpite attributes" - that may well be - but my point is that the EU can't have their cake and eat it on this. /2
@BorisForeignSec There is quite a lot of 'softeness' around the EU at the moment, as well-connected observers like @Mij_Europe have also seen - talk of giving new PM (yes, including Boris) a fair/professional hearing...particularly in Berlin /3
@BorisForeignSec @Mij_Europe And while the French maintain hard lines (there is still mistrust in Paris about whether Germans/Dutch will ever really back a 'no deal') there is also a sense of outreach - that we need to make sure @BorisJohnson doesn't slam doors shut before there has been time to talk /4
@BorisForeignSec @Mij_Europe @BorisJohnson It is clear that if PM Boris wants to tour the capitals of Europe first, he would be VERY welcome - "don't go galumphing into Brussels and say things you might regret" - which is a change of tack from "we are not talking, go see that nice @MichelBarnier /5
@BorisForeignSec @Mij_Europe @BorisJohnson @MichelBarnier Which is all fine, but ultimately meaningless if the EU are not serious about giving PM Boris somethign he can actually use to sell the deal in London.
Recall that Cameron and May both got pale imitations of what they wanted. Both bombed, with predictable consequences. /6
Recall that Cameron and May both got pale imitations of what they wanted. Both bombed, with predictable consequences. /6
@BorisForeignSec @Mij_Europe @BorisJohnson @MichelBarnier There is a danger that Europe thinks PM Boris can be a 'mini- @theresa_may in disguise (what a thought!) and that just tarting up the deal and tightening up the Political Declaration is enough, coupled with time pressure and fear of election, to get deal done. I don't buy it. /7
@BorisForeignSec @Mij_Europe @BorisJohnson @MichelBarnier @theresa_may I'm talking about the kind of stuff mentioned here by @BBCkatyaadler - a 'time-frame' on the backstop, not an actual 'time-limit'.../8
@BorisForeignSec @Mij_Europe @BorisJohnson @MichelBarnier @theresa_may @BBCkatyaadler Because as I point out here, the idea of the backstop applying "in whole or in part" is already there - it's not lipstick on the pig. It IS the pig. /9
@BorisForeignSec @Mij_Europe @BorisJohnson @MichelBarnier @theresa_may @BBCkatyaadler Now quite possibly the EU just deoesn't want to do that deal - it will decide it prefers a 'no deal' to rewarding Boris, as Ivan Rogers fears.
Perhaps all talk of time-limits is just a masquerade, part of the blame-game so that when 'no deal' happens the EU can say it tried. /10
Perhaps all talk of time-limits is just a masquerade, part of the blame-game so that when 'no deal' happens the EU can say it tried. /10
@BorisForeignSec @Mij_Europe @BorisJohnson @MichelBarnier @theresa_may @BBCkatyaadler But it shouldn't kid itself that Boris can just sell a repackage of the May deal. There is too much light, too much air in the system for that.
Boris must be able to argue convincingly that the 'second half' can be different. Alternative Arrangements can deliver. /11
Boris must be able to argue convincingly that the 'second half' can be different. Alternative Arrangements can deliver. /11
@BorisForeignSec @Mij_Europe @BorisJohnson @MichelBarnier @theresa_may @BBCkatyaadler Some of the real hardnuts like @SteveBakerHW will never go for it - sure - but they would be under huge pressure if Boris, or Hunt, or whoever really did get movement on the backstop. Because everyone wants to turn the page, and neither side really wants an election. /12
@BorisForeignSec @Mij_Europe @BorisJohnson @MichelBarnier @theresa_may @BBCkatyaadler @SteveBakerHW Plenty will say the moment has already passed; the 'No Deal' and 'No Brexit' camps are so entrenched that we are just waiting for the political firmament to crack now.
But if there IS a deal, it will have to be on the substance. /13 ENDS
But if there IS a deal, it will have to be on the substance. /13 ENDS
@BorisForeignSec @Mij_Europe @BorisJohnson @MichelBarnier @theresa_may @BBCkatyaadler @SteveBakerHW PS I should add, of course, that a 'deal' on these terms will still need a 'technical ' extension to get legislation done, and won't actually FIX the Irish border issue.
All it does is create time and space (5-7 years) to let economic and political gravity get to work. /14
All it does is create time and space (5-7 years) to let economic and political gravity get to work. /14
@BorisForeignSec @Mij_Europe @BorisJohnson @MichelBarnier @theresa_may @BBCkatyaadler @SteveBakerHW PS2. That too maybe somethign of an illusion, since the transition period will come up fast. It is an unashamed can-kick, but in the best traditions of the EU. And if it fails, the Good Friday Agreement is still there; the politics will have changed for better or worse in UK/15
@BorisForeignSec @Mij_Europe @BorisJohnson @MichelBarnier @theresa_may @BBCkatyaadler @SteveBakerHW PS3 I also totally hear the Irish arguemnt that any time limit just sets a clock ticking on an Irish border poll (wait for 'no deal') but when that time comes, the money will be on some other postponenment. But I accept we we are in a world of least-worst options here. /16
