Thread: Brexit ‘deal’ – The Rows to Come
The EU-UK stage one deal contains multiple contradictions, allowing for plenty of rows in the first few months of 2018. 1/
The EU-UK stage one deal contains multiple contradictions, allowing for plenty of rows in the first few months of 2018. 1/
First up will be a transition row. EU27 likely to offer short 2-3 year transition fully under EU acquis but UK will get no voting rights. UK govt will probably want some exceptions & cherry-picking (won’t get). Labour, SNP want a longer transition but unlikely to be on offer. 2/
EC wants EU citizens who come to UK in the transition to have full rights as in the EU-UK draft stage one deal. Cue big Tory row over that. If transition goes into 2021, UK will have to pay more for access (& EU will argue no rebate on payments) – more Brexiteer squabbling. 3/
Transition will be under Article 50; but EU trade deals with c.60 countries round the world won’t apply to UK under customs union transition. How will UK keep access to those markets – Liam Fox is not on the case on this one 4/
Then trade talks: first a UK cabinet row over what sort of deal (the conversation they forgot to have so far). EU won’t issue its trade guidelines until UK says what it wants. Then EU-UK back to regulatory divergence, customs, services rows and more. 5/
Trade: May will want almost full single market access while having no ECJ, no payments, no free movement& different regulations (or same in some sectors, same goals in others, & quite different in others). EU will say go whistle (in detailed guidelines). 6/
May will want better services access than Canada. EU will say go whistle. EU may look at regulatory equivalence for financial services, at 3rd country access rules for aviation, but overall EU won’t open its services market to UK, Canada, S Korea, Japan etc 7/
Borders: EU will be v strict on how EU & UK prove ‘regulatory conformity’. Likely to offer minimal/no mutual recognition. Outside customs union, there will be border checks eg on rules of origin. Businesses will trigger relocation plans. Irish border row will take off again. 8/
Canada deal will be dry. Only pluses will be on a security pillar, a judicial cooperation pillar, & a research pillar. UK will start suggesting ‘specific solutions’ for Ireland/NI border. EU27 will reject those. Then we will have the meaning of ‘full alignment’ row. 9/
UK will say full alignment is ‘similar but different’ regulations that apply in 6 areas of GFA (despite December deal): tourism, transport, environment, agriculture, health, education. Ireland will say ‘all island economy” & ‘full alignment’ means CU/single mkt regulations. 10/
This will take up Jan to April say. Will Labour take any stance on emerging Canada-style deal – any internal Labour rows, any opposition? Will SNP call indyref2 in face of Canada deal? How/will RoI/NI border be solved? Will DUP pull plug again? All that & more ahead 11/ Ends
