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0/ Last week was the 8th best weekly performance for $BTC going back to 1/1/18 (top 11%) while it was the 11th best performance for $ETH (top 14%). Volume was down vs the prior week while the average close was the highest in two weeks with the lowest L/S ratio since 5/6-5/12.
1/ Looking at other top weekly $BTC performances during that time the subsequent weekly performance skews slightly + (57%) with the monthly performance negative (57.1%) that said 2 of the 8 weeks happened within the last month and those occurrences in '19 have been positive
2/ Over the last 24 hours we've traded to YTD $BTC highs and the highest level since last May while $ETH is at its' highest level since last September.
3/ Just like we needed to consolidate in the lower-to-mid $8000's when leverage ticked up significantly from 5/25-5/30 it looks like a similar thing is occurring now with $BTC Bitmex funding in the top 81% of observed periods.
4/ The story is even more extreme with $ETH in the top ~85% of observed periods for Bitmex and top 88% for Bitfinex L/S.
5/ Some bears have also noted that volumes are lower as we make these new highs. While it's true compared to the last ~5 weeks it's still incredibly elevated vs. the past 50 days and any longer time period (we made a series of all time highs.
6/ A lot of people are looking at $8950-$9100 as a key inflection points to determine whether this is a blow off top or not. While consolidation is likely needed again (+17% in 6 days) this past week felt more akin to the month of May where you had a consistent price agnostic
7/ $BTC buyer in the market day in and day out as opposed to a big 2-3 sigma gap higher on short liquidations which is a more constructive market backdrop. Think you need to continue to buy any and all pullbacks.
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