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0/ $BTC was +58.6% in May the best monthly performance since Nov of ’17, the 4th best month since 2013, and the 10th best month since 2011.
1/ Following a top performing month, $BTC subsequent performance skews surprisingly positive in the 1-3 months post which is likely attributable to the reflexivity of the asset class with these outlier months kicking off bull runs (or happening within them)
2/ Looking at historical performance $BTC is exhibiting top ~20% trailing 30-60D performance.
3/ The difference between $BTCs realized cap & market cap averaged 59.5% during the month, the greatest delta since March of ’18 and now sits at >80%. The positive wealth effect in crypto is back but did we come too far too fast? In ’15-’16 it took 8 months to get back to 80%+.
4/ The $BTC realized cap vs. market cap difference is approaching 1Q18 levels.
5/ $BTC exhibited the highest realized vol since last Nov during May at ~90%.
6/ Looking at leverage on Bitmex, May was the first positive $BTC funding rate month since October ’18 for $BTC with the widest range since May of ‘18. This is notable as the first 11 days of the month had a negative funding rate.
7/ The Bitmex Insurance Fund is at record high $BTC levels with its' second greatest month ever in notional terms adding 3,324 BTC on a % basis it was the best month since last Nov.
8/ Based on the Bitfinex L/S ratio it was slightly more balanced given the lows in early May in the bottom ~40% of observed periods.
9/ $BTC had its 4th consecutive positive monthly close for the first time since May-August '17 and 5th time since 2013. While some consolidation would be healthy this backdrop is significantly different than anything else we've seen during the bear market post January '18.
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