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Rob Ford
@robfordmancs
, 3 tweets, 1 min read Read on Twitter
These are proposals the EU has repeatedly rejected, as Johnson knows. Does he believe the EU will give him a different answer and, if so, why?
What is his plan if the EU tell him "no" as they repeatedly told his predecessor? Is it then "no deal"? And how will he make that happen if Parliament oppose it? Will it then be an election?
And if he were to win an election on a no deal pledge, and takes us out with no deal, what then? The EU will still be there, and costs of economic and legal limbo will mount. What will he say to EU if prerequisite for restarting negotiations remains resolution of Irish border?
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Rob Ford
@robfordmancs
OK, seeing as the false argument "Labour needs Leave seats therefore Labour needs Leave votes" is now one getting presented in Shadow Cabinet, let's have yet another go at highlighting the problems with it 1/?
Attached are estimates of 2016 and 2017 vote patterns in Bassetlaw, constituency of @JohnMannMP who has repeatedly asserted that most Labour voters in Leave seats are Leave voters. Bassetlaw is estimated by @chrishanretty to have voted 68% "Leave" in 2016.
First, a quick note on the source and methodology - these come from Multiple Regression and Stratification models on very large survey datasets conducted by @kevcunningham and @election_data
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Rob Ford
@robfordmancs
*Sigh*. There's none so blind as those who will not see.
It seems a basic understanding of the ecological fallacy isn't a prerequisite for Shadow Cabinet level briefings about electoral geography. Which doesn't bode well for Labour electoral strategy.
Read 4 tweets
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Rob Ford
@robfordmancs
Didn’t Churchill cancel a major stroke, hiding from public eye for weeks and getting his colleagues to lie about what was wrong with him (including to the Queen)?
I certainly agree with Hunt’s sentiment but I’m not sure Churchill was ever a paragon of openness to public scrutiny and certainly not in his 1950s spell in number 10.
(Should read conceal not cancel FFS autocorrect)
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