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So ahead of EU leaders meeting tomorrow, time for some good old fashioned Brussels gossip (analysis?) on EU top jobs. Short thread of where things stand. Bottom line: process is stuck - in EP; with "rapporteurs"; and with @eucopresident bilateral consultations with MS 1/
No deal on @EU_Commission Pres this week. A second #EUCO on 30 June now likely to give leaders another shot. Council desperate to strike a deal before EP chooses its President beginning July. Why? Bc if EP goes first, its decision will constrain room for manoeuvre among leaders 2
For eg, one theory is that Ska Keller (Head of German Greens) & @guyverhofstadt will split EP Presidency among themselves (2.5 years each). But this would kill @vestager chances (as both her & @guyverhofstadt hail from lib group). "The first mover has the advantage" says one 3/
To unblock a deal, I hear Tusk may 1) try to strike agreement this week on "principles & parties, not names" - so EPP gets @EU_Commission; socialists & liberals Council or High Rep. 2) Another idea being floated is to try and get a deal on @ecb & Council, & then work back to COM
Neither likely to work. Other developments include total implosion of @EmmanuelMacron strategy in Bxl. Loiseau has proven to be unmitigated disaster. The idea in Paris of using her as the Élysée's entry point into EP has clearly failed. This could help @MichelBarnier 5/
"Who else do French have?" asks one official. But still strong opposition in Berlin to @MichelBarnier personally & with the idea that France would have - if Barnier succeeds - de facto chosen who headed the EPP list. But Berlin also needs to be careful 6/
.@ManfredWeber looks dead (& there's apparently growing rumblings within the EPP about him). If @MichelBarnier dies too, Germany could lose not only its ability to have a German run the @EU_Commission but an EPP candidate too 7/
An emerging consensus among EU officials is also that if @ManfredWeber doesn't make it, the other Spitzenkandidats (@TimmermansEU & @vestager) wont either - because it will prove impossible to mobilise & motivate EPP to support them. So Weber/Barnier cancelling each other out 8/
Might not be the right read. More accurate take might be that if Weber goes down, he'll take down all the other Spitz candidates down with him as well. So who is left? One senior official argues that Tusk "needs to find an EPP candidate so that the rest of the package works." 9/
Georgieva? But she's not supported by @BoykoBorissov. Remarkably, l've even heard that @eucopresident has hinted at himself! Don't think PiS would be too happy about that. Many also argue that with so many stakeholders, "more jobs will need to be created." 10/
There's talk of 2 VPs at the COM (Weber & Timmermans?). EIB in the mix? This perhaps outlandish. But with so many constraints to reconcile, many speculate that a package that only includes 4 jobs (COM, Council, ECB & High Rep) might not be enough 11/
.@MichelBarnier star probably rising (a tad). @ManfredWeber @TimmermansEU & @vestager falling. Georgieva falling. @ollirehn also back in game - somewhat independently but related to the shenanigans above (recall the "3+1" approach). Many in Bxl very, very concerned about that END
