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Mujtaba Rahman
@Mij_Europe
, 3 tweets, 3 min read Read on Twitter
Is EU27 position on #Brexit going to be same - regardless of who next PM will be? Or do different positions of @BorisJohnson & @Jeremy_Hunt actually matter? Interesting that @Jeremy_Hunt has consulted with @EmmanuelMacron & Angela Merkel before developing his #Brexit stance 1/
Add fact 1) Berlin will probs remain open, constructive & patient; 2) French could be forced to soften #Brexit position if they want to run next COM & 3) bigger part of next COM mandate will be phase 2/trade negs (not divorce) & new PM will get a hearing, as @pmdfoster has argued
BUT this window - however small -could be slammed shut by @BorisJohnson campaign. Especially if EU27 issue statement at next week's #EUCO reiterating EU red lines - a possibility that's now being seriously discussed. Once again, any EU goodwill/flexibility could be stillborn ENDS
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Mujtaba Rahman
@Mij_Europe
Thought experiment. It's possible to make argument that UK is currently in a de facto transition/Norway for now arrangement. Paying into EU budget. Full market access. UK officials not super active in Council Working Groups. UK PM excluded from many EU discussions at HoS level 1/
Is it possible this arrangement suits all sides & could continue for longer than most expect? Put differently, once PM, might @BorisJohnson decide to play it long? Alternatives for him & Tories (GE, 2nd Ref) aren't at all appealing. Moreover, EU has little appetite for no-deal 2/
Of course, there's lots of probs with this thesis. Conclusion of Euro elex for Govt, Tory & Labour leaders is Brexit must be delivered. And EU does want "clarity". But does status quo represent a more sustainable order of things compared to alternatives for each side? ENDS
Read 3 tweets
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Mujtaba Rahman
@Mij_Europe
What can we expect from tonight's #EUCO? Thread based on chats. One senior official notes: "Tonight is not about selecting people - that's for a more delicate phase of bilateral negotiations in the coming months. That's not the ambition for tonight"
Task of @eucopresident tonight - regardless of what's said publicly - is to see how Spitzenkandidat can be killed. "Because as long as there's an existential question over whether Spitz survives, it makes it harder to move serious negotiations over possible names forward"
Many (incl in Berlin) argue fragmented EP results mean decision will take time. Officials in Bxl disagree "Real problem is not EP - a majority can be found with 3 or 4 parties. Real problem is Merkel. She doesn't know what to do with Weber. When to tell him and what to tell him"
Read 7 tweets
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Mujtaba Rahman
@Mij_Europe
In latest #Brexit note I’m told “The person who might defeat Boris is Boris.” So what do we think is next for #Brexit? Short thread on our revised basecase - which will evolve - post May & Euro elections
Results of Euro elections will have significant impact on both Tories & Labour. But in short term, the most dramatic impact will be felt in the Tory leadership race 1/
1) @Nigel_Farage triumph is good news for @BorisJohnson, who is the man to beat, the agenda-setter and early front-runner & our basecase for PM (If not, then we think @DominicRaab, followed by @michaelgove then @Jeremy_Hunt) 2/
Read 10 tweets

Related threads

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katya adler
@BBCkatyaadler
EU leaders PM speaking to today have little expectation of a breakthrough in the cross-party talks with Jeremy Corbyn ahead of emergency #Brexit summit on Wednesday /1
EU leaders think it good idea to be in contact already now. PM doesn't have a good track record of performing 'on the night' at summits. She just spoke to Dutch PM Rutte. They'll talk again Weds morning before summit starts. Translation: No room for any more misunderstandings /2
EU leaders must come to unanimous conclusion on PM's extension request. But countries are divided. So Belgian PM has asked inner core of Most Affected Nations (affected by #Brexit ) eg Germany France, Netherlands to meet just before summit. An attempt to iron out differences /3
Read 12 tweets
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katya adler
@BBCkatyaadler
EU countries’ position on #Brexit delay being described to me still as a “cacophony” - some for short, others for long, some for strict conditions, others more relaxed BUT /1
EU decision on extension depends a) on what PM asks for b) on EU leaders once in a room together Thurs. Fair to say: all options stil on table and EU leaders want to avoid no deal. There will be no EU “no” to an extension request /2
There are legal and political issues mixed up in EU’s extension decision: /3
Read 9 tweets
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katya adler
@BBCkatyaadler
EU has almost given up trying to understand what’s going on in UK.
Dutch PM Rutte compares Theresa May to Monty Python knight whose limbs get cut off in a duel but insists the fight was a draw. Elsewhere in EU, mood is darker esp with the prospect of a lengthy #Brexit delay 1
With UK politics mired in confusion, only thing EU can control this week is choreography at EU leaders’ summit, starting Thurs. Donald Tusk, EU Council president is visiting capitals to try to co-ordinate single EU response if/when Theresa May asks for article 50 extension 2
Today Tusk is in Berlin and Paris – the EU superpowers. But when it comes to delaying Brexit, any one of the EU’s 27 leaders has a veto. The decision must be unanimous 3
Read 16 tweets
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katya adler
@BBCkatyaadler
EU watching Westminster closely this week but not rushing to any
conclusions. Here is some of the key thinking in European capitals on
the main #Brexit issues of the day: /1
On Labour/second referendum: Corbyn seen in Europe as convinced
eurosceptic so EU is sceptical of his backing a second referendum. EU
has watched #Brexit turmoil long enough to see huge complications in
holding the vote and realise many leave voters have changed their
mind. /2
Of course EU would still rather UK stayed but Europe's leaders don't
see this as realistically on the cards right now. Most realistic,
considering turmoil in Westminster, says EU council President Tusk:
would be to extend article 50 leaving process. /3
Read 11 tweets
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Lesley Miller
@LesleyMillercyp
#Brexit 1
Cadbury moved factory 2 Poland 2011 with EU grant.
Ford Transit moved 2Turkey 2013 with EU grant.
Jaguar Land Rover recently agreed 2 build a new plant in Slovakia with EU grant, owned by Tata, same company who trashed our steel industry & emptied workers pension funds.
#Brexit 2
Peugeot closed its Ryton (was Rootes Group) plant and moved production to Slovakia with EU grant.
British Army's new Ajax fighting vehicles to be built in SPAIN using SWEDISH steel at the request of the EU to support jobs in Spain with EU grant, rather than Wales.
#Brexit 3
Dyson gone 2 Malaysia, with EU loan. Crown Closures, Bournemouth (Was METAL BOX), gone 2Poland with EU grant,employed 1,200.
M&S manufacturing gone 2far east with EU loan.
Hornby models gone. In fact all toys & models gone from UK along with patents all with EU grants
Read 28 tweets
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tony nog #FBPE
@tony_nog
#Brexit
1) Thread - All Brexits are bad and what we voted for
It's often said by brexiters that "it's not all about economics"
However, the *actual* Leave campaign was almost wholly about economic arguments

With the leak of this 2-8% report those arguments are now trashed
2) We seem to have forgotten this however economics played a huge part in the Vote Leave campaign, making up over 2/3rds of the primary arguements. The clear message was we would at the least be no worse off and at best much better off. 4 of the 6 below state this clearly
3) & the fact is voters believed we would be no worse off. People prioritized immigration certainly, but against a backdrop of there being no consequences from Brexit - few are prepared to actually pay for ending FoM
Read 36 tweets

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