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Mujtaba Rahman
@Mij_Europe
, 3 tweets, 1 min read Read on Twitter
Thought experiment. It's possible to make argument that UK is currently in a de facto transition/Norway for now arrangement. Paying into EU budget. Full market access. UK officials not super active in Council Working Groups. UK PM excluded from many EU discussions at HoS level 1/
Is it possible this arrangement suits all sides & could continue for longer than most expect? Put differently, once PM, might @BorisJohnson decide to play it long? Alternatives for him & Tories (GE, 2nd Ref) aren't at all appealing. Moreover, EU has little appetite for no-deal 2/
Of course, there's lots of probs with this thesis. Conclusion of Euro elex for Govt, Tory & Labour leaders is Brexit must be delivered. And EU does want "clarity". But does status quo represent a more sustainable order of things compared to alternatives for each side? ENDS
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Mujtaba Rahman
@Mij_Europe
Is EU27 position on #Brexit going to be same - regardless of who next PM will be? Or do different positions of @BorisJohnson & @Jeremy_Hunt actually matter? Interesting that @Jeremy_Hunt has consulted with @EmmanuelMacron & Angela Merkel before developing his #Brexit stance 1/
Add fact 1) Berlin will probs remain open, constructive & patient; 2) French could be forced to soften #Brexit position if they want to run next COM & 3) bigger part of next COM mandate will be phase 2/trade negs (not divorce) & new PM will get a hearing, as @pmdfoster has argued
BUT this window - however small -could be slammed shut by @BorisJohnson campaign. Especially if EU27 issue statement at next week's #EUCO reiterating EU red lines - a possibility that's now being seriously discussed. Once again, any EU goodwill/flexibility could be stillborn ENDS
Read 3 tweets
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Mujtaba Rahman
@Mij_Europe
What can we expect from tonight's #EUCO? Thread based on chats. One senior official notes: "Tonight is not about selecting people - that's for a more delicate phase of bilateral negotiations in the coming months. That's not the ambition for tonight"
Task of @eucopresident tonight - regardless of what's said publicly - is to see how Spitzenkandidat can be killed. "Because as long as there's an existential question over whether Spitz survives, it makes it harder to move serious negotiations over possible names forward"
Many (incl in Berlin) argue fragmented EP results mean decision will take time. Officials in Bxl disagree "Real problem is not EP - a majority can be found with 3 or 4 parties. Real problem is Merkel. She doesn't know what to do with Weber. When to tell him and what to tell him"
Read 7 tweets
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Mujtaba Rahman
@Mij_Europe
In latest #Brexit note I’m told “The person who might defeat Boris is Boris.” So what do we think is next for #Brexit? Short thread on our revised basecase - which will evolve - post May & Euro elections
Results of Euro elections will have significant impact on both Tories & Labour. But in short term, the most dramatic impact will be felt in the Tory leadership race 1/
1) @Nigel_Farage triumph is good news for @BorisJohnson, who is the man to beat, the agenda-setter and early front-runner & our basecase for PM (If not, then we think @DominicRaab, followed by @michaelgove then @Jeremy_Hunt) 2/
Read 10 tweets

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el gato malo
@boriquagato
thought experiment:

imagine you are 25-35 and have just won some sort of financial lottery like BTC or tech stocks or whatever.

the long bull market is all that you have ever known.

how are you going to respond to this enormous stimulus?
you COULD realize you won lotto, but basically no one does this

you say "wow! i'm one of the anointed ones! the plugged in! a digital warrior groking the future! it's always going to be like this for me because i'm special!"

rule one of this feeling is "keep this feeling".
it is a small jump from this to "since i am so enlightened, let me tell you about the 15 other totally orthogonal things i also have views about!"

social pressure is exerted and ideas coalesce together as if under some form of meme gravity.

a zeitgeist emerges.

a uniform one
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Brigid Laffan
@BrigidLaffan
Thank you @jillongovt for posting this-must listen. Great to have a focus on the future. Interestingly I disagree with Sir Ivan on his portrayal of the #EU approach to negs- technocratic & run by the theologians & not strategic in summary. @BrigidLaffan
In my view EU had 3 strategic interests to protect in Brexit negs which it has done. 1. Following the portrayal of EU as weak & disintegrating during ref, EU had to assert its centrality in Europe. @BrigidLaffan
2. Membership has to matter/a departing state that wants to retain a lot of the status quo cannot be allowed to do so. 3. The rules based system had to be protected. @BrigidLaffan
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James Holland
@James7Holland
THREAD..

..on the biggest and baddest lobbyists in EU town

..the huge influence they have on EU lawmaking

..and how many represent interests from outside the EU.

/1
According to Transparency International @TI_EU, the lobby organisation that has held the most high-level meetings at the European Commission between 2014 and 2018 is @BusinessEurope.

"BusinessEurope?!?" you ask.

/2
@TI_EU @BusinessEurope It is hardly surprising that the vast majority of people have never heard of BusinessEurope.

There is a worrying media blackout about how a complex network of organisations lobby the #EU on behalf of the world largest corporations.

/3
Read 27 tweets
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Charles Lister
@Charles_Lister
This piece is extraordinary & cunningly misleading.

- All "senior" #UK officials he cites have been long-time apologists for #Assad & invited guests in #Damascus.

- The author makes so many false claims I lost count & he never once acknowledges *any* violent act by the regime.
Ok, let’s start at the beginning:

(1) The idea that the #Assad regime has become “indispensable” to #Turkey & “the Kurds” (whatever that means) is palpably ridiculous. #Russia maybe, not #Damascus.

(2) Regime forces have *not* entered Manbij, they are villages away, to the SW.
(3) Cavusoglu’s comments are *no different* as those made in #Europe & the US; based on a free/fair election, which is extremely unlikely anytime soon.

(4) That’s (Baath = solution) the author’s opinion, not that of any of the actors he’s mentioned so far (#Turkey & #Kurds).
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David M. Herszenhorn
@herszenhorn
.@realDonaldTrump's man in Brussels Ambassador @gordondsondland told me #EU is making mistake trying to wait out Trump & sneaks in assertion that Trump will win re-election in '20 "If a liberal democrat, succeeds the president as the next president when his two terms are up...
...they are still going to want the same result. I don't believe any president of any party is simply going to let the European Union continue to build its advantage, continue to proliferate regulation...
, to the point of where you wake up 5 or 10 years from now, and American businesses are virtually shut out of doing any kind of meaningful business with the EU. Read full interview on @POLITICOEurope politico.eu/article/trumps…
Read 3 tweets
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David M. Herszenhorn
@herszenhorn
Air boxing by top #UK officials is amazing. Who punching at? Unlike in London, #Brexit never been much fight in Brussels, more lament. When some urged penalty in financial settlement, EU ignored & just tabbed up #'s. Citizen rights a 2-way street. Other stuff mainly logistical..
Point again is not to take any side, but merely point out Brussels has had consistent principles, goals & negotiating positions from the start. London still has no consensus on final objective. No one I know in #EU has advocated for "no deal" but some in #UK actually do that...
Have had many many long conversations w/ top London colleagues. Am very conscious of all arguments & concerns on #UK side, incl over Northern Ireland. But even in no deal scenario, #UK will end up facing exact same choice on future relationship w/ EU as now, but w/o transition...
Read 4 tweets

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