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2nd round of voting today. Yet most in Bxl expect they'll be dealing with Boris in near future & war gaming that. Short thread. 1 scenario is no #Brexit activity until Oct. Boris then uses EUCO to argue "I accept entire WA except backstop. It's no backstop or no deal. You decide"
This would be very uncomfortable for EU27 - who don't in any circumstances want to be ones blamed for no deal. Alternative hypothesis is Boris seeks to amend PD in a "more Brexiteer direction." Swallows NI backstop, pointing to unicorns in future. But Corbyn/many Labour MPs won't
Support "blind Brexit". & what about DUP? Some in Bxl think there'll be enough Tories and Lab-leave MPs to get this deal through. Very unclear. Scenario 3: BJ asks EUCO for ST extension (end of year). Again, if UK asks, EU will grant. Length of extension could increase for GE/ref
2 final thoughts. Likely Boris will try & bypass TF50 & deal directly with MS, touring capitals in Aug (arguing there's no one in Bxl to speak to as new COM not in place). Oct Council also helpful for Boris as it's a leader's process. Ignores that mandate/guidelines came from 27!
If Boris really threatens EU w no deal, consensus among EU officials is that @LeoVaradkar will hold key. That is, 26 will look to Ireland for guidance, way forward. So of course no throwing Irish under metaphorical bus, but uncomfortable position for Varadkar to be in nonetheless
