Thread by @ChrisBrown0914

Well, I hope you guys want to read a 40-tweet thread about Matthew Boyd and his trade value, because here it comes. (Apparently you can only string 25 tweets together, but I’m a monster and decided to make two mega threads).

First, let’s establish what Matthew Boyd is. For the last 2 seasons he was a slightly below-average MLB starter. A classic backend arm who could give you some innings. But this year he is a top 20 pitcher in baseball.

Is it real? He is coming off his two worst outings of the season, so perhaps the league is starting to adjust, but for now all the underlying data supports his breakout. His strikeout rate is up 7.7%, his swinging strike rate is up 3%, and his walk rate is down 3.3%.

He currently ranks 11th in fWAR (2.6), 10th in bWAR (3.0), and 19th in WARP (2.9). If he continues pitching this well he’s looking at a 5-win season. If he regresses completely it’s still likely a 3-win season. I’ll split the difference and say he’s a 4-win pitcher.

Boyd is 28 and under team control for this year and his age 29, 30, and 31 seasons. He’s making $2.6 million this year, and if we project him to stay at the level of 3-5 WAR, over the next three seasons he’ll probably make around $35-40 million.

Now we need to figure out what teams are paying for that level of production in dollars. There are general guidelines for how much teams pay per win now (supposedly close to $11 million), but I think some recent real-world examples for pitchers could be instructive.

Dallas Keuchel was projected for about 1.5 WAR over 15 starts, and the Braves gave signed him to a pro-rated one-year deal worth $13 million. That’s $8.7 million per win, but this is kind of an odd situation.

Nathan Eovaldi signed with the Red Sox for 4 years and $67.5 million. He was projected for about 5 WAR over that time, which is about $13.5 million per win. The Red Sox saw him dominate in the playoffs, so presumably their internal projections predicted more than 5 WAR.

J.A. Happ signed with the Yankees for 2 years and $34 million. He was projected for about 4 WAR, so that’s around $8.5 million per win. He was 36 though, so there’s some age-based risk baked into the deal.

Matt Harvey signed for 1 year and $11 million. He was projected for about 1.3 WAR, which again comes to around $8.5 million per win. He recent track record suggested a lot of risk, so this is another case where the money was suppressed a bit.

Patrick Corbin’s 2018 looked a lot like what Boyd is doing this year (with fewer homers). He was projected for about 3.5 WAR this year, and the Nationals gave him a six-year, $140 million deal. That works out to about $8 million per win over the life of the contract.

Lance Lynn signed for 3 years and $30 million. He was projected for about 4.5 WAR. Charlie Morton signed for 2 years and $30 million, and he was also projected for about 4.5 WAR. Both deals come out to about $6.75 million per win.

Enough examples? Probably enough examples. We see the dollars-per-WAR is kind of all over the map, but given Boyd’s seeming upward trajectory, his lack of injuries (never on IL), and his age, I don’t think it’s crazy to suggest he’d get $8-9 million per WAR on the open market.

If we project Boyd to produce roughly 12 WAR from now until free agency, that’s $95-110 million in value. If we subtract the $35-40 million he’ll be paid, we get something like $60-70 million in surplus value. We’ll split the difference and call it $65 million.

FanGraphs has a great post about the value of prospects. Read it here if you want blogs.fangraphs.com/an-update-to-p…
They suggest Boyd’s ~$65 million in surplus value is theoretically enough to land a single top-10 prospect (the quality of the top ten varies as players graduate).

It seems unlikely a team will part with a top ten prospect anymore, but you can piece together a more realistic deal from something like the 25th prospect ($43 million) and the 75th prospect ($23 million). In FanGraphs parlance that’s a 55 FV (Future Value) and a 50 FV.

That still sound pretty good! But Tigers fans, close your eyes and pretend the team is contending again. They just need a starter. Would you trade Matt Manning and Isaac Paredes for 3+ years of Matthew Boyd? That’s what we’re asking other teams to do.

This is all fun (for me), but again we’re talking about theoretical values. So, as we did with the free agent pitching contracts, let’s look at some recent trades involving top-100 prospects to see what the Tigers might expect to get.

2/7/19 – PHI trades Sixto Sanchez, Jorge Alfaro, and Will Stewart to MIA for JT Realmuto.

Sanchez was a top 25 prospect; Alfaro a young MLBer who was in the 50-70 range as a prospect. Realmuto the best C in baseball, expected to produce $55-75 million in surplus value.

12/12/18 – CLE trades Jake Bauers to TB for Yandy Diaz and $$.

Bauers topped out around #50 as a prospect before a tough MLB debut in 2018. Diaz always hit the ball hard but usually on the ground. This one isn’t terrible instructive for us.

12/3/18 – PHI trades Carlos Santana and JP Crawford to SEA for Jean Segura, James Pazos, and Juan Nicasio.

Complex deal, but Crawford was a top-20 prospect on a downtrend and Segura an established MLB All-Star expected to produce $20-40 million in surplus value.

12/3/18 – NYM trade Jay Bruce, Jarred Kelenic, Anthony Swarzak, Gerson Bautista and Justin Dunn to SEA for Robinson Cano and Edwin Diaz.

Kelenic and Dunn are both top 100 types, but this deal isn’t very helpful for us, unless someone wants to trade for Cabrera.

7/31/18 - TB Traded RHP Chris Archer to Pittsburgh for OF Austin Meadows, RHP Tyler Glasnow, and Shane Baz.

Meadows and Glasnow were both top 25 prospects at one point. Baz a top-100 type. Archer struggling now, but was expected to produce $60-80 million in surplus value.

Maybe not enough examples, but it appears reasonable for the Tigers to expect a package of at least one top-40 prospect (or a young MLB player who was recently ranked in that range) and another top 100 prospect in exchange for Matthew Boyd.

Market scarcity does play a part, here. There are going to be other arms on the market…Madison Bumgarner, Marcus Stroman seem gone for sure, and other pitchers like Bauer and Syndergaard might be. But Boyd’s multiple years of control could make him a target for more teams.