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The risk for the EU has always been UK state paralysis and vicious political fragmentation making it structurally unable to take any coherent action as a result of No Deal rather than any great moment of British assertiveness
The EU has to weigh up how it avoids having blame shifted on it for the implosion of the UK state system
What makes the impact of No Deal on British everyday life so unpredictable is we do not know how far the lower frontline end of the UK civil service, NHS and police can function autonomously on their own initiative if the ability of the senior civil service to act collapses
The more the delivery end of a civil service on the ground has the resources and will to make its own decisions even if the senior levels at the centre grind to a halt, the more there will be a buffer against the worst impact of No Deal on everyday life.
We just can't know yet
We just can't know yet
In the UK the origins and future of Brexit are often debated in terms of a crisis of the British economy.
Yet at core, Brexit is a crisis of the British state
Yet at core, Brexit is a crisis of the British state
