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Alexander Clarkson
@APHClarkson
, 3 tweets, 1 min read Read on Twitter
There is no robust evidence showing that the UK has been able to exert any effective influence over MBS and MBZ when it comes to war in Yemen, Libya or Syria as well as repression in the Gulf, Egypt or Sudan
If the UK wants to sustain the military industries needed to sustain its own defence structure and hopefully make a serious constructive contribution to collective European security then it needs to be able to pay for it without what is in effect a Saudi and UAE subsidy
Same goes for France, Belgium, Italy (in relation to Qatar), Spain and Ukraine
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Alexander Clarkson
@APHClarkson
Another few years of this and the Americans may end up with the shock of Europeans saying "fine, just sod off then". US military presence is very useful, but the EU and its member states will survive without it.
The heavy US military role has ensured US influence over Europe's political and strategic development. Withdrawing in a snit over China increases the likelihood that an EU thrown on its own vast resources becomes a strategic rival rather than a partner of the US.
There is no EU state that wants a strategic rift with the US. It is easier and cheaper to rely on US military infrastructure. But after damage of the 00s, US political instability and the distrust Trump is fuelling is prodding the Europeans in directions the US may come to regret
Read 3 tweets
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Alexander Clarkson
@APHClarkson
Now that after three long years key UK media and political milieus have finally come to terms with the UK's geopolitical predicament, perhaps it is time for Europeans to put away the rhetorical hammer and gently assist a reorientation of UK discourse towards European integration
Schadenfreude is tempting. But it may be more helpful to politely point out that the EU opened up a range of options that could help a paralysed UK regain agency. That UK voters could once again become central to the process if the extension opportunities are used imaginatively
The EU achieved all its key strategic goals during the Withdrawal Agreement negotiations. The steps model set out by Barnier shaped the negotiation process and always defined the UK's choices. The EU's hegemonic position in Europe has been reasserted successfully.
Read 6 tweets
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Alexander Clarkson
@APHClarkson
Wouldn't be surprised if in a few years many who once supported Brexit become strident supporters of European integration as a means through which to achieve their ideological goals on a much grander scale.
The vessel for it might change but the fascination with power rarely does
The basic problem with the Liberal Leave agenda was this dubious distinction between political and economic integration.

Without shared institutions, security tools, defence structures and yes even a currency a high level of economic integration is very difficult to sustain
Political, monetary, security, border and economic integration aren't separate tracks. They are deeply intertwined. Those who stand outside several of those tracks yet remain in the Single Market are free-riding on the efforts of those who work to sustain the entire EU system.
Read 5 tweets

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