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Shane Goldmacher
@ShaneGoldmacher
, 13 tweets, 6 min read Read on Twitter
NEW: Takeaways from 2 nights in Miami

1 Biden is a fragile frontrunner
2 Kamala jolted the race
3 Warren/Sanders battle for left intensifying
4 GOP loving the debates (especially hand-raising)
5 Castro gains toehold
6 The field is too damn big

A thread…
nytimes.com/2019/06/28/us/…
1) Biden

It says something that 23 candidates were not bullied out of 2020 by a former VP. And Miami showed why. Louder whispers from rivals about whether Biden has lost a step. And that his "Department of Ed" answer gonna spur more news cycles...
nytimes.com/2019/06/28/us/…
As a baffled @fshakir, Bernie Sanders's campaign manager, asked me after the debate on Biden, “Are we still debating whether the federal government should have a role over desegregating schools?”
nytimes.com/2019/06/28/us/…
2) Kamala

We already knew from Senate hearings that Harris with a script can be deadly. And while debates don't have scripts, her taking Biden to task very much did.

Exhibit A: Shirts for sale nytimes.com/2019/06/28/us/…
2) Kamala

The debate was another important marker: Harris leaning into her identity as an African-American woman to make an argument no one else on stage could.

Also, end of quarter is a great time to have moment. Real potential online $$$ windfall.
nytimes.com/2019/06/28/us/…
3) Warren-Sanders

They weren't on stage. But they are increasingly the ones vying for the committed lefties, which puts them on collision course.
nytimes.com/2019/06/28/us/…
3) Warren-Sanders

The challenge: The demographics of their lefty support is different...

Warren supporters seen as skewing older, more female and more educated; Sanders as more male, younger and blue-collar.
nytimes.com/2019/06/28/us/…
4) GOP ❤️ Dem debates

How Republicans summarized Miami: Leading Democrats declared they want to take away your private health insurance and provide coverage to undocumented immigrants.

And they've got visuals to show it
nytimes.com/2019/06/28/us/…
4) GOP ❤️ Dem debates

Trump Jr. adviser @Surabees called it “a prolonged general election attack ad for Republicans.”

@mattsgorman said of immigration hand-raising: "Trump knows how to tap into that issue as naturally as you ride a bike.” nytimes.com/2019/06/28/us/…
5) Castro

Castro has chafed at the mild-mannered label. So he swore on stage and flayed O'Rourke.

As brother Rep. @JoaquinCastrotx told me: “He’s not the loudest person out there, the flashiest person out there, but he’s not like just a wilting leaf” nytimes.com/2019/06/28/us/…
6) Field too big

Reminder: It was a chance drawing that Harris was on stage with Biden and not Booker, who led the critique on segregationists and "boy" comment.

nytimes.com/2019/06/28/us/…
6 1/2 sidebar) Speaking of Booker

He spoke the most on stage Wednesday and focused on introducing himself with a retooled his message. Gone: "conspiracy of love" and "civic grace." And look who in the nation was Googling him:
nytimes.com/2019/06/28/us/…
6) Field too damn big

Field too damn big
Field too damn big
Field too damn big
Field too damn big
Field too damn big

nytimes.com/2019/06/28/us/…
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More from @ShaneGoldmacher see all

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Shane Goldmacher
@ShaneGoldmacher
Cory Booker on CNN in studio with Don Lemon, responding to Biden now....
"I was surprised he didn't apologize," Booker says.

They are now playing Biden clip from outside his fundraiser in MD.
Booker on CNN: "As a black man in America I know the deeply harmful and hurtful use of the word 'boy""
Read 16 tweets
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Shane Goldmacher
@ShaneGoldmacher
NEW: Democrats say new DNC debate rules are forcing them to distort their 2020 campaigns to get 130k donors.

Vendors are now quoting $40 and $50 to “acquire” ONE new $1 donor.

A flood of money to Facebook just as Ds complain about the tech giant... nytimes.com/2019/05/30/us/…
Some math: Let’s say a smaller campaign can get 100,000 donors organically but has to advertise to hit 130,000.

At $40 a pop, that’s $1.2 million.
nytimes.com/2019/05/30/us/…
Digital Dem pros are fretting about the impact down ballot where House and Senate candidates with low name ID are priced out of the small donor acquisition market
nytimes.com/2019/05/30/us/…
Read 6 tweets
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Shane Goldmacher
@ShaneGoldmacher
NEW: Remember those headlines about Beto O'Rourke's $6.1 million first 24 hours?

Well, he inflated that figure a bit with ~$300,000 in general election funds he can't spend in the primary, meaning Bernie Sanders raised most for primary on Day One.
nytimes.com/2019/04/16/us/…
NEW: Elizabeth Warren spent nearly 87 cents of every dollar she raised in the first quarter.

Why so much?

She built a 160+ person staff — dwarfing her rivals (Bernie Sanders has 80+ aides; Kamala Harris has 40+ aides).
nytimes.com/2019/04/16/us/…
Just how thrifty was the Pete Buttigieg campaign?

He spent only 9.66% of what he raised in Q1.

What was his biggest expenditure? Remarkably, it was simply processing the deluge of small donations he received via ActBlue.
nytimes.com/2019/04/16/us/…
Read 3 tweets

Related threads

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Peter Daou
@peterdaou
The Democratic field is effectively #Biden, #Warren, #Sanders, #Harris, and #Buttigieg

#DemDebate2
To clarify, I'm going by poll averages over the past few months. I don't think the debates have materially changed the dynamics of the race or altered the top tier.
That said, I think Biden's recent downward drift and Warren's rise will continue.
Read 3 tweets
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Brandi Buchman
@BBuchman_CNS
I will live-tweet the presidential #debates for @CourthouseNews.
The debates, unfolding over two nights, begin tonight at 9PM ET.
This evening we will hear from: Warren, Booker, O'Rourke, Castro, Gabbard, Inslee, Klobuchar, de Blasio, Delaney and Ryan.
Join me!
The lineup for Thursday night will be: Biden, Sanders, Harris, Buttigieg, Gillibrand, Bennet, Williamson, Swalwell, Yang and Hickenlooper.
While I live-tweet, my @CourthouseNews colleague in Florida, @alexbpickett, will be in Miami tonight to cover the event. He will have an indepth write up after, so be sure to follow him as well!
Read 3 tweets
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Victoria Brownworth
@VABVOX
So per @NBCNews, these are the latest fundraising rankings.
These are significant because #Warren is after #Sanders and #Harris in the polls where they rank 1st and 2nd (not counting Biden since he's not in) but her fundraising is below #Booker.
As these money rankings stay, Warren is in trouble for the debates like Castro and Gillibrand are because of the rules on how fundraising numbers = viability. Not making the debates would be terrible since #Warren & #Gillibrand are the most progressive & #Castro the only Latinx.
Also, these daily totals are averaged, but they aren't representative as a metric because all these candidates entered at different times & Sanders never stopped fundraising from 2016.
The question is, how much is no big donors hurting #Harris & #Warren?
Read 3 tweets
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Jason Patterson 📚
@jason_patterson
When talking about the #GOP of the 1860s(especially party founders/leaders), we‘re talking about a party that’s virtually all white men, with abolition as a foundational tenet—caring about/acting on the best interests of millions of ppl they didn’t know, personally or culturally.
Note: Important to remember a lot of what these men thought on race goes under the category of white supremacist beliefs.

But as a party they held the platform of human rights, even for people in this country that weren’t “their people.”

That’s absent in #GOP rhetoric today.
A project I did on Lincoln’s duality when it came to white supremacy.
goo.gl/FbNiJG
1/2
Read 4 tweets
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Victoria Brownworth
@VABVOX
#GOP salivating over someone 6yrs older than Trump with reams of oppo on him and a phalanx of haters among Democrats does not equal "a lot of people." Sanders polls at 12% & #Midterms were about women & POC.

A Lot of People Want Bernie to Run in 2020
theatlantic.com/politics/archi…
As I wrote a few weeks ago for @damemagazine, 2020 won't be about one term, but two. Any Democrat running for 2020 must be prepared to be an incumbent for 2024. Sanders will be 83 going in.

damemagazine.com/2018/09/04/how…
The reality that neither Bernie nor Biden wants to face is how neither of them looks all that different from Trump on a debate stage. But the counterbalance between Trump and a woman, especially one 20yrs his junior, would be incredibly stark.
Read 4 tweets
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Tom Watson
@tomwatson
I'll say this clearly for you people in the back who just don't get it: I'll take a government full of establishment hacks over a fascist bigot threatening the existence of American democracy any day of the week. Hell, I'll fight for that "establishment" if it saves this country.
You want to make new law, pass progressive legislation, build a fairer country? Me too! First, save the system of laws by casting out this criminal regime. It's the whole ballgame. We will advance NOTHING till he's gone.
I have zero patience for all of your "well, Hitler was just a symptom of something larger" bullshit. Ride or walk, it's your choice. Do you even care? Is it all an intellectual exercise? Does this fucking BORE you?
Read 8 tweets

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