,
9 tweets,
3 min read
Read on Twitter
With Canada joining Japan in choosing not to roll over the existing EU trade deal in the event of a no-deal Brexit, let's recap on where we are on trade in no-deal Brexit - TL:DR - not at all a pretty picture 1/ buzzfeed.com/alexspence/can…
There are 24 countries with which the UK has a >£10bn trading relationship (exports plus imports). We currently have preferential deals with 16 (EU plus highlighted). Of these we believe only one (South Korea) will be unchanged in a no-deal Brexit 2/ 
Switzerland and Norway rollovers are partial as @CoppetainPU has been writing with reference to the first. Turkey can't be rolled over in a no-deal Brexit. And even with South Korea (full text to come) there are stories of some time limited clauses 3/ tradebetablog.wordpress.com/2019/02/12/uk-…
In terms of smaller trade partners it is interesting to note that the UK has so far failed to roll over any agreements with any other EU neighbours, with the exceptions of Israel and the Palestinian Territories. 4/ researchbriefings.files.parliament.uk/documents/CBP-…
So if we leave the EU with no-deal on October 31 we will lose virtually all of our preferential access to the wider European markets, as well as Japan and Canada. There will be a huge workload as I wrote in March... 5/ ecipe.org/blog/the-next-…
The current Government's priorities after Brexit are new FTAs with Australia, New Zealand, and the US, and joining CPTPP. But the US is the big political focus among Brexiters. The problem is it would be hugely controversial and take massive resource 6/ prospectmagazine.co.uk/economics-and-…
And of course there would be the decision on what to do about an EU FTA, which as I wrote yesterday is likely to be only offered on EU terms. And in such a way as to make a US trade deal difficult. 7/ ecipe.org/blog/isolation…
It is also worth bearing in mind that a no-deal Brexit is likely to lead to an economic shock meaning some sectors will become uncompetitive - which would affect what we want in trade deals. Basically we won't know what to ask for 8/
Summarising, in terms of trade agreements and wider trade policy we are nothing like ready for no-deal Brexit at the end of October. We'll lose much of our preferential access and have no known future plan to make up for it 9/ ends
