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Jim Grace #FBPE
@mac_puck
, 3 tweets, 2 min read Read on Twitter
The Treasury say Brexit will be £90Bn a year!!!

Cameron's Austerity was £82Bn ... over 5 years.

The Brexit trolls are saying "Treasury forecasts are always wrong!"

ARE they always wrong? By how much?
Seems they tend to UNDERESTIMATE future borrowing.

obr.uk/download/histo…
I have downloaded the historical data on treasury borrowing predictions for 1 to 5 years ahead, stripped out errors caused by a prdiction being made against a Labour spending programme being superseded by a Conservative one and errors caused by pre-referendum predictions vs post.
On average there's a slight overestimate (£2Bn or 2%) 1 year ahead and an increasing UNDERESTIMATE of future borrowing 2-5 years ahead.

So don't let any Brexit Trolls dismiss these Treasury forecasts. Even if they are 2% high it still means £88Bn/yr hit.

They're probs 25% LOW!
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More from @mac_puck see all

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Jim Grace #FBPE
@mac_puck
@panmisthropist
1/ I took the Income data and sweated it a bit harder...
Looked at what effect does 100K of net immigration LAST year have on the wage rise for each income decile this year.

I looked seperately at:
Total net immigration (Non-EU, EU27 & Brits)
Brits
EU
Non-EU
2/ Observations:
1. The correlation numbers are all very low ( a figure of 1 means perfectly correlated; a figure of 0.1 means only 10% of the changes in Y are down to changes in X).
2. The sums involved are tiny - pennies.
3. Draw your own conclusiosns vis a vis EU v non EU.
3/ Caveats:
The analysis has not been normalised for age ( younger people earn less generally; a bunch of 26 year old immigrants will bring down the average for a decile just by joining it, without affecting the existing members wages at all!)
Read 4 tweets
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Jim Grace #FBPE
@mac_puck
1/ Sources tell me that Grayling has made great progress on his hedgehog milking project. He has awarded a £1.5Bn contract ( to a Dutch company ) and they have already started trials. The hedgehogs just lead themselves to the little milking machines in the hedgerows.
...
2/ Obviously there are some teething issues - male hedeghogs "misusing" the milking machines so the females don't get access - but I am sure these can be resolved.

The project was intended to fill the gap created by a shortage of Irish dairy product after Brexit but
...
3/ It has taken on greater urgency since Gove instructed the entire UK dairy herd to be shot. Apparently "they cannot survive our cold weather, we must shoot the beasts!". It appears that Mr Gove heard the chief vet say most UK cattle are "freezin".... Ah well.
...
Read 4 tweets
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Jim Grace #FBPE
@mac_puck
1/ A thread for any Labour MPs who want to know what Milnes' brexit strategy means for their employment status after the next GE. (see end)

Background:
Labour got 40% of the pop. vote in 2017.
10% in 2019.
Where did the votes go?
Approx 55% to remain parties / 15% to the Brezis.
2/ I have taken the YouGov survey and the GE2017 vote counts to model 4 scenarios:

A. No change to Lab policy.
B. Same as A, but remainer electoral pact. (for LD read REM)
C. LAB switch to remain & get back LD/GRN/CUK/SNP/PC votes
D. Same as C but LAB pick up Tory remainers too.
3/ Now the fun bit for Labour MPs: will the Milne/Corbyn strategy cost you YOUR seat at the next GE?

My best guess is the voting pattern will be closer to 2019 than 2017, so I have given a 75:25 weighting. Here are the results WITHOUT a LD/GRN/CUK electoral pact.
Read 6 tweets

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1/ #Brexit & #PeoplesVoteMarch - have we wasted 926 days debating the wrong things?
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Paul Chaplin #FBPE 🇪🇺
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I'm currently at this #Brexit conference in Copenhagen, where the British ambassador and several #DExEU officials will be on panels with representatives of Danish trade and security. It'll be very interesting to see what's said, especially in light of May's recent Munich speech.
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#BrexitDK
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