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1/ A thread for any Labour MPs who want to know what Milnes' brexit strategy means for their employment status after the next GE. (see end)
Background:
Labour got 40% of the pop. vote in 2017.
10% in 2019.
Where did the votes go?
Approx 55% to remain parties / 15% to the Brezis.
Background:
Labour got 40% of the pop. vote in 2017.
10% in 2019.
Where did the votes go?
Approx 55% to remain parties / 15% to the Brezis.
2/ I have taken the YouGov survey and the GE2017 vote counts to model 4 scenarios:
A. No change to Lab policy.
B. Same as A, but remainer electoral pact. (for LD read REM)
C. LAB switch to remain & get back LD/GRN/CUK/SNP/PC votes
D. Same as C but LAB pick up Tory remainers too.
A. No change to Lab policy.
B. Same as A, but remainer electoral pact. (for LD read REM)
C. LAB switch to remain & get back LD/GRN/CUK/SNP/PC votes
D. Same as C but LAB pick up Tory remainers too.
3/ Now the fun bit for Labour MPs: will the Milne/Corbyn strategy cost you YOUR seat at the next GE?
My best guess is the voting pattern will be closer to 2019 than 2017, so I have given a 75:25 weighting. Here are the results WITHOUT a LD/GRN/CUK electoral pact.
My best guess is the voting pattern will be closer to 2019 than 2017, so I have given a 75:25 weighting. Here are the results WITHOUT a LD/GRN/CUK electoral pact.
4/ And here is the list if there is a grand remainer alliance. ("LD" means whomever is chosen from LD/GRN/CUK)
(If there is a Tory/Brezi electoral pact and Labour doesn't join a remainer pact, the list is real simple: girls and boys, you ALL need to brush up your CV's)
(If there is a Tory/Brezi electoral pact and Labour doesn't join a remainer pact, the list is real simple: girls and boys, you ALL need to brush up your CV's)
5/ Caveat:
I have taken 2017 votes in each constituency and re-allocated them on the basis of the YouGov data for EPE 2019. But an AVERAGE movement of 25% from LAB to LD say doesn't mean it is 25% in a particular seat. It could be 20% here and 30% there.
I have taken 2017 votes in each constituency and re-allocated them on the basis of the YouGov data for EPE 2019. But an AVERAGE movement of 25% from LAB to LD say doesn't mean it is 25% in a particular seat. It could be 20% here and 30% there.
P.S. If you cannot get Corbyn to budge on Labour's brexit policy...good luck with the CV writing!
