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Jim Grace #FBPE
@mac_puck
, 6 tweets, 3 min read Read on Twitter
1/ A thread for any Labour MPs who want to know what Milnes' brexit strategy means for their employment status after the next GE. (see end)

Background:
Labour got 40% of the pop. vote in 2017.
10% in 2019.
Where did the votes go?
Approx 55% to remain parties / 15% to the Brezis.
2/ I have taken the YouGov survey and the GE2017 vote counts to model 4 scenarios:

A. No change to Lab policy.
B. Same as A, but remainer electoral pact. (for LD read REM)
C. LAB switch to remain & get back LD/GRN/CUK/SNP/PC votes
D. Same as C but LAB pick up Tory remainers too.
3/ Now the fun bit for Labour MPs: will the Milne/Corbyn strategy cost you YOUR seat at the next GE?

My best guess is the voting pattern will be closer to 2019 than 2017, so I have given a 75:25 weighting. Here are the results WITHOUT a LD/GRN/CUK electoral pact.
4/ And here is the list if there is a grand remainer alliance. ("LD" means whomever is chosen from LD/GRN/CUK)

(If there is a Tory/Brezi electoral pact and Labour doesn't join a remainer pact, the list is real simple: girls and boys, you ALL need to brush up your CV's)
5/ Caveat:
I have taken 2017 votes in each constituency and re-allocated them on the basis of the YouGov data for EPE 2019. But an AVERAGE movement of 25% from LAB to LD say doesn't mean it is 25% in a particular seat. It could be 20% here and 30% there.
P.S. If you cannot get Corbyn to budge on Labour's brexit policy...good luck with the CV writing!
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More from @mac_puck see all

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Jim Grace #FBPE
@mac_puck
@CarolineFlintMP
See GE results 2010, 2015 and 2017.

1. When LD do well YOU do badly.
2. When UKIP/BREZI/YORKIES do well, the TORIES suffer, LAB is OK.

JC's hard Brexit policy is boosting LD. (see 1)
If Brexit happens, the BREZIS disappear. (see 2)

Join the dots, Caroline.
The very best thing for YOUR majority is if
A) JC switches to remain and you get back the Labour defectors from LD / GRN... plus a few Tory remainers.
B) Brexit is cancelled, so the Brezis don't disappear, but hang around cannibalising half the Tory vote.

Wake up, wise up, GTTO.
Seriously: Here it is in summary.

When LD goes up YOU go down.
When BREZI/KIPPERS go up the TORIES go down.
You want a policy that:
1. wins back votes from LD
2. keeps the Brezis bubbling along splitting the Tories.

Supporting remain achieves (1) and remaining achieves (2).
Read 3 tweets
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Jim Grace #FBPE
@mac_puck
1/
 "We will take back control of
our MONEY
our LAWS and
our BORDERS"

Let's have a look at "our money"

Seems to me like we already have control over all but a vanishingly small percentage of our money - look at UK annual tax and spend.
2/
 OK, let's have a look at our law.
Who gets to make our laws? Um... Westminster, mostly.

( See this thread for more detail
)
3/
Alright, who enforces our laws?
Yep, us again - almost entirely.
Read 7 tweets
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Jim Grace #FBPE
@mac_puck
What is Government?

Basically: Government controls: how public money is raised
how it is spent
and lawmaking.

How much of these activities have been transferred to Brussels?

1. Raising money.
Out of £818 Bn raised, EU rules control how we raise *£3Bn (customs duties).
*In theory EU rules also control our £125Bn VAT take, by setting a minimum rate of 15%, but in practice HMG have chosen a rate of 20%, so the EU floor is irrelevant. HMG has set the UK VAT rate.

Bottom line: the EU controls how £3Bn is raised / HMG controls £815Bn.
2. Spending money.
The EU decides how and where £13Bn of UK taxpayer money gets spent. HMG decides how £805Bn gets spent.

3. Lawmaking.
About 13% of UK laws originated in the EU. Only 0.2% are ones we opposed.
Read 4 tweets

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Tom Kibasi
@TomKibasi
THREAD: The myth of the soft Brexit majority.

A majority in this parliament needs to get to 320. It's been repeated so often that it has become a truth—that there is a majority for a soft Brexit in parliament.

Here's why that's almost certainly not the case.

(1/9)
Let's start with the Labour Party (245 MPs).

Soft Brexit is the position of the leadership (see JC letter to TM 6/2).

But there are at least 60 strong backers of a people's vote in the PLP & maybe 5 who want a harder Brexit.

So Labour brings max 180 MPs to soft Brexit.

(2/9)
What would the SNP do?

Well, Scotland voted to Remain, and yesterday Sturgeon said: "preferably asking for a longer extension to put the issue back to voters".

So don't count on any SNP support for soft Brexit

(3/9)
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Nick Vucic
@npv708
Brexit, but in gifs.

#Brexit
The Leave Campaign prior to the referendum:
The Remain Campaign prior to the referendum:
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Sam Hooper
@SamHooper
The thing I find most frustrating about British politics is how nearly everyone with political power or a media platform is myopically focused on how Britain navigates the next few years, while there is no national conversation about where we want to be in 10, 20 or 50 years.
Both sides of the Brexit divide are guilty. Continuity Remainers want only to reverse Brexit and make it so that the EU referendum result was nothing but a bad dream. Hard Brexiteers have their platitudes about Britain swashbuckling its way to WTO rules-based free trade glory.
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ooj
@SkidRowRadio_YT
THREAD: When the shit wants to get off the pot.

The centrists waking nightmare is currently the thought of actually having to endorse JC in important votes in the next few weeks, if his thus far winning strategy does result in May failing again. 1/
They don't want to vote w/ JC on any none PV resolution to #Brexit. 2 things can happen now as we get to the wire
1) May adopts JCs proposal, Labour backs the brexit deal, we're done. Brexit is solved & we can get on with a split & preparing left candidates to run against them 2/
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Aijay/cyberagbero™
@cyberagbero
'Heroism & patrotism. A lesson from Kenya.'
#Thread

The world has come to accept the fact that just like burglary & carjacking, terrorism has come to stay. I personally have come to terms with the fact that just like you can never tell when the next carjacking will happen
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