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As the Secretary of State for International Trade writes to @AngusMacNeilSNP concerning the roll-over process (attached), it is time to take stock, as an academic, speaking solely for myself (thread) parliament.uk/documents/comm…
@AngusMacNeilSNP The @LordsEUCom is charged with the scrutiny work, you can find the agreement scrutinised on this website - there are 10 (by my count, but I am tired) actual FTAs amongst the rolled-over agreements. parliament.uk/business/commi…
@AngusMacNeilSNP @LordsEUCom (Note on the process: these agreements will become relevant in the case of a) no-deal or b) in the case of a deal after the transition period as during the transition the idea is that the UK will stay under the original EU FTAs.
@AngusMacNeilSNP @LordsEUCom What are the major take-aways? 1) I am impressed by the work of DIT 2) But I had realistic expectations 3) Politicians consistently oversold what is possible and now oversell what has been reached. This is not good for anyone.
@AngusMacNeilSNP @LordsEUCom And there’s a take-away 4) I would argue that the EU has been cooperative in the rollover process. This is below the radar, but significant.
@AngusMacNeilSNP @LordsEUCom Why am I impressed by DIT’s work? To everyone who knows about trade it was clear that this was a tough job: negotiating FTAs with complete uncertainty about the EU-UK relationship. This was the first thing a South African said to me at a conference in J’burg in 2016.
@AngusMacNeilSNP @LordsEUCom This leads to 2) realistic expectations: it was clear from the get-go that some things cannot just be rolled over. The EEA, Turkey and Switzerland are clear examples: much of the relationship relies on regulatory alignment. Which we do not want. So you cannot roll it over.
@AngusMacNeilSNP @LordsEUCom Here’s my testimony to the Trade Bill Committee back in January 2018 publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm201719/cm… 
@AngusMacNeilSNP @LordsEUCom I did not expect a full roll-over. And indeed, the EEA and Switzerland replacements do the possible. Not the imaginary.
@AngusMacNeilSNP @LordsEUCom Which leads to 3) constant overselling. While the claim that we’ll sign a free trade area larger than the world (yes, that claim was actually made) is dead, there is still significant overselling - of what is reached and of what is possible.
@AngusMacNeilSNP @LordsEUCom Of what is reached: the letter by the Secretary simply includes everything that’s been signed as continuity. The Norway FTA is not continuity. Full stop. Nor is the Swiss one. They provide for some continuity. That’s important for people using those FTAs.They have a right to know
@AngusMacNeilSNP @LordsEUCom Of what is possible: while I commend the letter for showing honesty about Japan & Turkey (there won’t be a roll-over) it is a bit of an embarrassment that the letter shows optimism about CETA,but is published the same day as a Buzzfeed story saying no way. buzzfeed.com/alexspence/can…
@AngusMacNeilSNP @LordsEUCom Which brings me to 4) which is of interest to @DmitryOpines. There’s been lots of discussion whether the UK can legally negotiate FTAs or is prevented from doing so under EU law because of 207 TFEU and loyal cooperation.
@AngusMacNeilSNP @LordsEUCom @DmitryOpines Views diverge on this. There’s an argument to be made that as long as you’re an EU member you have to respect the exclusive competences of the EU. There’s another one that says this is modified by the reality of the withdrawal process under loyal cooperation.
@AngusMacNeilSNP @LordsEUCom @DmitryOpines The reality is: the EU could make the roll-over process hell. If it wanted to. It did not. It tacitly accepted the UK’s negotiations, it seems. I have not seen an official decision, but clearly there seems to have been some agreement - that’s good will that I am grateful for.
