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1/OK, people asked for a thread explaining this, so here we go!
1/I'm strongly optimistic about Africa because so many African countries have nowhere to go but up. Environmental problems loom and population pressure is intense, so many bad things will happen, but overall the story will be one of rapid (though uneven) growth.
2/I'm mildly pessimistic about South Asia because they're more in danger from coastal inundation from climate change (especially Bangladesh!). Resource overuse will combine with climate change to threaten a super-optimistic growth story.
3/I'm neutral about Southeast Asia because it has decent per capita income, solid but unspectacular growth, and will benefit from the movement of supply chains out of China, but is also quite authoritarian and threatened by climate change.
4/I'm neutral about the Middle East because on one hand I expect the current outbreak of war to end, followed by an era of stability and pragmatism, but on the other hand the shift away from oil and increased temperatures will probably cause further big disruptions.
5/I'm cautiously optimistic about Latin America because inequality is decreasing, stability has increased, demographic and resource pressure is relatively low, and there's not much prospect for war.
6/I'm cautiously optimistic about East Asia because its economic fundamentals remain very strong. But rising totalitarianism in China, combined with a slowing economy, could potentially push China to get more aggressive and throw the region into war.
7/I'm mildly pessimistic about the U.S. because although its fundamentals all remain extremely strong, Americans have decided that they can't live with each other, so I see continued political instability.
8/I'm strongly pessimistic about Europe because I think the Euro is bad, the EU is kind of ineffective, demographic decline is ongoing, industrial sclerosis is a threat, and there's a strong possibility of a continent-wide xenophobic backlash.
9/And though I left it off the list, I'm strongly optimistic about Canada, given its advantageous location, lack of population pressure, stability, ability to grow via a smart immigration policy, and excellent TV comedy programs.
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