,
5 tweets,
2 min read
Read on Twitter
Suddenly everyone has caught on to the idea the national vote means less than it used to mean given the demographic changes and in what locations those changes have and are taking place.
There's more evidence 2016 was a trend than a fluke. Swings just mask it. Census is clear.
There's more evidence 2016 was a trend than a fluke. Swings just mask it. Census is clear.
Traditional battlegrounds, even competitive states in which one party had an edge, are moving in different directions than the nation, fueled by large pop centers in Big Blue States.
Take Wisconsin, for instance. Dems no longer have a built-in ID edge.
bigdatapoll.com/wp-content/upl…
Take Wisconsin, for instance. Dems no longer have a built-in ID edge.
bigdatapoll.com/wp-content/upl…
In 2016, Wisconsin voter analysis shifted from D+3 to D+6. Now, Republicans have the edge, though the large percentage of unaffiliated voters make for competitive elections.
Meanwhile, Calif. Democrats added 11 million unopposed votes to national margin.
bigdatapoll.com/wp-content/upl…
Meanwhile, Calif. Democrats added 11 million unopposed votes to national margin.
bigdatapoll.com/wp-content/upl…
In Florida, Democrats continue to bleed voters off the voter rolls and enjoy the smallest registration edge since 2004. an analysis of 12+M voters gives Republicans a 1-point edge, which grows slightly when recent movers are excluded enough to slightly lose indies.
Point being, the Electoral College is decided by the states, which was by design, though that can be argued at a later date. The growing disparity between national and battleground trends is pretty pertinent.
Just glad others are starting to catch on.
Just glad others are starting to catch on.
