Thread by @Usherwood

So what do we know from the first (almost) week of a Johnson-led gvt on Brexit?

1/

The first, more general comment is that this is a gvt with a much more active media profile: the past 6 days has been a whirl of content

2/

Evidently, this has been underpinned by the intention to signal "Newness": new leader, new Cabinet, new ideas, new policies, new momentum.

3/

This makes complete sense, on two levels:

- to make contrast with predecessor
- to distract from the continuation of the same underlying problems

4/

(those problems again: wafer-thin majority; split CONs; divided public opinion; lack of consensus on purpose of Brexit. The usual)

5/

Note that Cabinet reshuffling is w/in Johnson's power, while growing his majority isn't.

6/

This all matters for Brexit, because it feels like the aim is to generate an impression of impatient desire to deliver on a big domestic package, frustrating by Brexit distractions

7/

However, it also highlights the v.ambivalent position on Brexit itself

8/

Policy remains nominally very largely as under May: preference for a deal, but willingness to accept no-deal if that's not possible

9/

But substantively, the first arm of that - getting a deal - hasn't really happened.

Minimal discussions with EU/IE/others, and certainly no substantial plan behind it

10/

Johnson and colleagues have instead talked a lot about wanting a deal, but seem to be waiting on EU to propose one.

But w/o only a demand that the backstop is dropped, and no suggestion on how to cover that gap, it'll be a long wait

11/

Where there is more ambiguity is on no-deal arm.

More money is going into this, plus regular Cabinet ctes, but no clear work on the biggest barrier: Parliament

12/

Unlike most around here, I've yet to make up my mind on whether a GE happens or not, but as it stands, working assumption would have to be that Commons blocks no-deal, probably by forcing gvt to ask for an extension

13/

So options are:
- gvt doesn't really want no-deal
- gvt thinks Commons will blink
- gvt can get round Commons

14/

But gvt isn't working up alternative deal; Commons isn't obviously going to blink; and I'm not sure there's appetite for the constitutional battle over by-passing Commons

15/

That does point to a GE, but various credible reports suggest this isn't the priority now

My thought is that No.10 hasn't planned that far yet

16/

To come back to the start of this, the key objective right now - when VONC/GE is not an option, during recess - is to recast the political debate to No.10's preferences

17/

That involves handing out goodies to all & sundry, who might be expected to be grateful for getting away from old annoyances (migration targets, pay freezes, short-staffed public services, infrastructure o/s London, etc.), only to then say "sorry: Brexit's holding this back"

18/

tl;dr UK EU policy continues to be "let's hope something pops up"

/end