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Big Q in everyone’s mind in the past week has been about the surge in additional troops to Jammu and Kashmir. Is the govt the finally moving in to abrogate 35A; is there a crackdown in the offing? There are on clear answers yet but here is my take, right or wrong.
Soon after the Trump-Imran meeting in the White House and Pakistan COAS Bajwa’s meetings in the Pentagon, Indian Intelligence started picking up a lot of chatter about possible Pulwama-type attack in the Valley and ‘lighting up,’ of the LoC.
Why would Pakistan do it? GHQ in Rawalpindi perhaps felt that a spectacular, headline-grabbing strike would force a hard Indian response—a la Balakot or post-Uri surgical strike—with an inbuilt escalation potential, instantly inviting American intervention.
On ground sources in Pak-Occupied Jammu and Kashmir (POJK) also reported increased movement and presence of well-armed foot soldiers of JeM, LeT etc in the launch pads abandoned post-Pulwama. They were moved out that time in anticipation of Indian retaliation.
In anticipation of a reckless attack in J&K, the Centre, as a precautionary measure, moved additional central armed police forces last week to plug the gaps in the security grid. Moreover, additional forces were needed to secure vital installations before 15 August.
However, having changed the template in 2016 and taken it to the next level in Balakot, India’s security managers didn’t want to limit the response to any Pakistani mischief to just defensive measures. Pro-active, pre-emptive steps have also been planned to meet the challenge
What those will be and when they will be taken, obviously a matter of operational secrecy. There is no doubt however that many lessons learnt in the wake of Uri, Pulwama and Balakot have been studied in depth so as not to repeat mistakes in the near past. Wait and watch. As I am
