Thread by @dimitrijoe

Deforestation in the Amazon is back in the spotlight, thanks to bad new figures and disastrous responses from the Bolsonaro. This week's cover of @TheEconomist was about that.

Having done work on deforestation, I'd like to share some thoughts on the latest news. Thread.

@TheEconomist First, the numbers (which The Economist story lacks): This graph by @hertonescobar in today's @sciencemagazine summarizes why we are talking about this.

In Jul/19, deforestation doubled-tripled compared to July of the past 3 years.

This is terrible. But it's not the whole story

Here's the longer view on deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon):

Bottom line: long term, deforestation is ok; medium-term (past 3-4 years), the trend is worrisome; short-term, the trend is horrifying.

As far as numbers go, this is the whole story.

Now I'd like to share thoughts on a few things that are being said in the media

- We are close to a tipping point in the Amazon; go past it, and the forest cannot recover

- The international community should do "something" about it.

- Things are getting worse under Bolsonaro.

"We are close to a tipping point in the Amazon"

My problem with this statement is, if a tipping point is close now, it has been so for a long time. The relative increase in def. was huge; the absolute increase not so much.

So scientists should have issued this warning years ago

But they haven't. Or, at least, it didn't catch the media's attention.

Why? B/c things are indeed getting worse under Bolsonaro (more on that below).

So, I welcome the stir, but I have reservations about how close we really are to a tipping point. I can be wrong. I hope I'm not

"The international community should do something about it"

Before going further: The Economist's story was mild on this one. Look at @guardian editorial last Sunday. Or the @newrep story two days before that.

@guardian @NewRep What to make of this?

Objectively, it doesn't help. Bolsonaro runs on nationalism. And few things make Brazilians - left or right - warier than this subject

Generations grew up hearing that the gringos wanted to take the Amazon from us. Headlines like these feed the conspiracy.

@guardian @NewRep Now, if you think that emissions from the Amazon require international action, then actually the US and China should be top of your list.

Amazon is not just about CO2. It regulates global climate. Neighbors would be more affected. But that's true of any env. externality.

@guardian @NewRep "Things are getting worse under Bolsonaro."

The first graph in the thread is clear cut on that one.

Yes, they are. Why?

B/c Bolsonaro ran for office on this platform.

Budget cuts to command-and-control policies, and overall signaling that it's OK to deforest (e.g., for mining even if that means to invade indigenous reserves and kill) seem to be driving of the recent increase in deforestation

To close, we have all the reasons to be worried.

If the recent trend continues, we'll back at pre-2009 deforestation levels by the end of the year.

And that would be terrible for everyone.

But I don't think the international community has figured out how to approach this problem.

Diplomacy prob. not enough.

Commercial sanctions prob. unfair to citizens and may backfire.

I hope no one is thinking of military action (other than the @newrepublic, of course).