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K A Armstrong
@ProfKAArmstrong
, 5 tweets, 1 min read Read on Twitter
A short thread on how Brexit may unfold over the summer. Working backwards ...

Johnson will want a general election within 6 weeks of delivering Brexit on 31 October “come what may” 1/
If he is going to stop Parliament from determining the UK’s Brexit fate, Johnson would seek to prorogue Parliament after European Council 17/18 Oct with new sessions and Queen’s Speech on or around 5 November 2/
If MPs want to block PM they will have to do so prior to European Council meeting with a view to forming a unity govt in 14 day period following a vote of no confidence under FTPA 3/
Issue for opposition. Parties is whether they wait till after the conference recess when MPs return to Westminster in early October or move no confidence motion immediately after summer recess 4/
On these scenarios there will be a two week window that will determine the fate of Brexit. #BrexitTime /ends
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K A Armstrong
@ProfKAArmstrong
If MPs are going to have another go through indicative votes to set a Brexit path it would be useful if MPs actually understood the implications of different choices and what any choice actually means.
A Customs Union does not deal with regulatory obstacles to trade and doesn’t offer any market access to services. There are a huge number of free trade agreements and a tiny number of customs unions.
A Single Market entails the four freedoms including services but also movement of workers as a legal right. Restrictions on free movement are restrictions on a fundamental freedom and so very narrowly defined.
Read 6 tweets

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Chappers
@PJChapman74
Thread!! Big thread! Oh, coffee! Don’t go any further without coffee! This is an 80+ tweet thread about tax! People with goldfish-type attention spans, or people with no interest in tax or #Brexit need not even attempt. You have been warned!! There are three facets…
…to the “Brexit was about tax avoidance” conspiracy theories. We have “Brexit was brought in after the EU introduced the Anti-Tax Avoidance Directive”, “Brexiteers want to keep details of their tax avoidance schemes secret from the EU” and “Brexit is about protecting…
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Britain Elects
@britainelects
Thread:
Tomorrow Boris Johnson will become the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom. In case you missed it, here is a reminder of the exclusive polling we commissioned measuring public attitudes towards him and Brexit.
“I do not believe Boris Johnson will be able to deliver Brexit by the 31st of October”

Agree: 53%
Disagree: 17%

via @ComRes, 15 - 16 Jul
Read more: britainelects.com/2019/07/18/53-…
On how you would vote if...
“Boris Johnson is PM, a General Election is held before the 31st of October, and Brexit has not been delivered”

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LDEM: 18%

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britainelects.com/2019/07/19/bor…
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Jon Worth
@jonworth
Pretty much all the 'analysis' of the Tory leadership election and how it relates to #Brexit is wrong.
This is actually not all a waste of time.

Politics takes the path of least resistance.

Vote a deal, go for No Deal, rescind, call a General Election or hold a 2nd referendum are all *hard*.

Get rid of the leader is the easiest. Like a struggling ⚽️ team sacking its manager.
Why then does anyone take anything any candidate says remotely seriously?

These Tories were not serious when the UK faced a real crisis in March/April.

Why would that *improve* when appealing to 160k predominantly elderly, white, male members who are 3/4 pro-Brexit? It won't.
Read 10 tweets
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Nick Vucic
@npv708
Brexit, but in gifs.

#Brexit
The Leave Campaign prior to the referendum:
The Remain Campaign prior to the referendum:
Read 125 tweets
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ooj
@SkidRowRadio_YT
THREAD: right here's what I think is really going on with #Brexit:

May's game is move to a 2nd ref but blame Corbyn by havin all neolib forces pressure him to support it. then rig the vote while scaring us out of 'no deal' which is actually just 'brexit' - what we voted for 1/18
if the Tories adopt:
Lab Customs union deal = they split
No deal = they split
May's deal = they split
A people's vote = the country splits
this has been their plan all along: to forfeit country for party. to steal brexit. they do not want to leave. 'no deal' was a rebranding 2/19
Corbyn knows this & is bluffing May all the way to that cliff edge because actually he's got wings, & the freedom of a clean break will aid his program, free from EU spending caps or investment rules. he's far more willing to push this to the wire than May 3/19
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tony nog #FBPE
@tony_nog
1) 6 pointless, time wasting exercises the Tory & Labour parties want to put the country through before we can start work on #Brexit

There are only 2 options left, May’s deal or Remain. There’s no majority for no deal and no time or appetite for a new negotiation
#PeoplesVote
2) There is only 3 months left and the country is in a state of worry. Despite this, and despite the ticking clock the 2 major parties are insisting on self indulgent frippery and posturing before we can get to the real business of fixing #Brexit
3) Lets take the Tory party. Firstly, they’re about to engage in another Leadership contest. May will probably win this but even if she doesn’t it will consume weeks of time for no purpose because it won’t itself change anything in Brexit. The same issues will exist afterwards
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