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THREAD: Speculation about the UK leaving the European Union without a deal has been at fever pitch. Dominic Cummings has suggested it’s too late to stop it, and No 10 is clearly gearing up for a No Deal Brexit outcome. (1)
In such a scenario, the 245,000 UK firms that currently only trade with EU countries will need to apply for an Economic Operator Registration and Identification number (EORI) to trade goods into and out of the UK. Less than 3 in 10 have. (2)
If firms registered at the current rate it would take until 2021 at the earliest for UK exporters to be ready for a No Deal Brexit, leaving EU/UK trade seriously undermined, putting hundreds of thousands of jobs at risk - just one example of the chaos that would follow. (3)
It is therefore unsurprising there is so much debate about what could happen if Boris Johnson loses the confidence of the House of Commons as a result of his No Deal policy and whether Parliament can stop No Deal. (4)
Regarding a potential election, we are in uncharted waters but it is possible to hold one before Exit Day. (5)
To be clear: so long as Parliament is sitting it CAN stop No Deal on October 31st. Backbenchers can seize control of the business of the House and pass a law obliging government to request an Article 50 extension. (6)
Cummings & co forget there is no mandate for a No Deal Brexit - in 2017 when Theresa May put forward her plan for a hard Brexit to the public in the General Election, she lost her majority. (7)
There is a danger that in the focus on a No Deal Brexit, Boris Johnson pivots to a hard Brexit with a deal, like that rejected in 2017, which passes. But Brexit in any form will harm the economy - that’s why the @LibDems want to #StopBrexit entirely. (8)
If there is an election this Autumn, there will be arrangements for a #Remain Alliance of unequivocally pro-EU parties as we saw in Brecon & Radnorshire – that cannot include Labour and the Tory candidates because their parties are led by Brexiters and back Brexit. (9)
