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Mujtaba Rahman
@Mij_Europe
, 3 tweets, 1 min read Read on Twitter
I've just spent 3 days in Bxl & have recently spoken with senior officials in several EU capitals. I agree with this. EU unlikely to move in big way. But it's also true that key EU policy makers now believe UK is willing to accept/countenance no deal. That was never case with May
So if "phase 1" of Boris' approach was about convincing EU of credibility of Govt's commitment to no deal, they've succeeded. In any event, this far more complex than who blinks. Fundamentally, Boris' Govt doesn't aspire to frictionless trade..
They DO accept consequences of Brexit in a way May/Olly never did. That means we're facing a Govt with a very different set of strategic & political priorities to those agreed in Dec 2017 Joint Report. And they want a deal that reflects that. Will thread more on this later
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Mujtaba Rahman
@Mij_Europe
Think picture is more nuanced than this. The backstop is a de facto CU. A "rudimentary, CU 1.0" in the words of one senior EU official, but a CU nonetheless. If UK is no longer seeking frictionless trade with EU & rejecting tenets of 2017 JR (per my tweets yest & day before)
Then it follows that UK is seeking lighter LPF commitments than those required for a CU - even though Olly widely credited for negotiating robust market access for minimum LPF conditions & EU is v clear that LPF conditions will be tougher for UK than Canada in a Canada-style FTA
So think @10DowningStreet is willing to sign up to LPF conditions - question is which ones, how dynamic etc. Not a blanket rejection, but rather desire to revise LPF discussion in light of access UK is now seeking. That's my read light of discussions I've had with both sides END
Read 4 tweets
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Mujtaba Rahman
@Mij_Europe
About to take a well-deserved holiday. Few final #Brexit thoughts before I do. Perception across EU is that @DavidGHFrost came to Bxl as a spokesperson for @BorisJohnson, not a negotiator. As has been reported, when pushed, no new ideas were tabled as alternatives to backstop
This said, it's clear to EU officials that biggest shift in Govt's approach (besides ramp up of no deal track) is fact it is no longer seeking "frictionless trade." It no longer subscribes to commitments made by @theresa_may in Dec 2017 JR - neither substance, nor "philosophy"
(ie that there needs to be a legally binding operational solution to Irish border in WA). New Govt sees this as a mistake, although many in Whitehall remain of view that TM’s attempt to square Brexit with a soft border was both responsible & a credible attempt
Read 16 tweets
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Mujtaba Rahman
@Mij_Europe
The G7 in Biarritz is now widely seen as the next most important moment for the UK-EU #Brexit stand-off - affording @JunckerEU, EU leaders & @BorisJohnson an important opportunity to talk candidly & in private to better assess each other's bottom lines. But will it? 1/
As reading between the lines of Boris' BBC interview makes clear, don't think @10DowningStreet team have yet made up their minds about how they'd like to play it & whether indeed to engage 2/
With @realDonaldTrump in attendance, might be easier to make the story & visuals about UK-US relationship, trade deal etc. in an attempt to pile more pressure on EU. Boris' allies convinced hardball approach is working. Rather than reset, G7 might entrench each side further ENDS
Read 3 tweets

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