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THREAD: Yesterday I tweeted a poll asking people whether greenhouse gas emissions from the UK transport sector have increased or decreased since 1990.
Of 34 people who voted, 68% incorrectly guessed that emissions increased.
Of 34 people who voted, 68% incorrectly guessed that emissions increased.
UK transport emissions peaked in 2007 and have since dropped 3% below 1990 levels.
The figures include all road, rail, domestic shipping, and domestic aviation. They don't include international shipping and aviation.
The UK gov stats can be found here: assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/upl…
The figures include all road, rail, domestic shipping, and domestic aviation. They don't include international shipping and aviation.
The UK gov stats can be found here: assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/upl…
More interesting than the stats themselves is the fact that, as humans, we are inclined to believe the world is more negative than it actually is.
The news we consume is generally skewed towards the negative, and small incremental improvements aren't usually interesting to us.
The news we consume is generally skewed towards the negative, and small incremental improvements aren't usually interesting to us.
Further, I don't believe the majority of us have updated our worldview since leaving education.
When I was in school, UK GHG emissions were still rising and, having not properly updated my knowledge since, I assumed they still were and projected that growth trend ahead to today.
When I was in school, UK GHG emissions were still rising and, having not properly updated my knowledge since, I assumed they still were and projected that growth trend ahead to today.
I was staggered when I learned that total UK GHG emissions have actually fallen by a massive 44% from 1990 levels. GHG emissions from UK power plants have fallen by an incredible 68% from 1990 levels.
I also incorrectly assumed that transport GHG emissions had risen since 1990.
I also incorrectly assumed that transport GHG emissions had risen since 1990.
My followers are predominantly made up of people from the transport sector. There is a general consensus that climate change and reducing GHG is the most important issue we are attempting to tackle as an industry.
Yet so many of us (myself included) are wrong about the facts.
Yet so many of us (myself included) are wrong about the facts.
When we don't update our knowledge regularly, or invest in proper data collection and analysis, our instincts fill in the gaps.
Those same instincts, which kept us alive in millennia gone by, often lead us to believe that a problem is worse, more urgent, and bigger than it is.
Those same instincts, which kept us alive in millennia gone by, often lead us to believe that a problem is worse, more urgent, and bigger than it is.
When we try and make decisions or pursue policy ideas without all the facts, we invariably get it wrong. Well-intentioned climate policies made without taking a fact-based approach to policy development often have unintended consequences.
For example, in Germany emissions were steady between 2011 and 2015 despite ambitious targets to reduce them by 40% by 2020. This is because zero-emission nuclear plants were shut down faster than their ability to deploy renewable energy, increasing coal to cover the shortfall.
To make the right decisions, you need access to good data. As far as I know, only two countries publish quarterly reports into GHG emissions; Sweeden and Australia.
To me, reducing emissions is an issue that is too important to rely on annual reports.
To me, reducing emissions is an issue that is too important to rely on annual reports.
Bringing the conversation to shipping, by 2020 the @IMOHQ will have conducted only four detailed greenhouse gas studies in two decades. In 2000, 2009, 2014, and 2020.
If we are serious about tackling the industry's GHG emissions, we need better reporting.
If we are serious about tackling the industry's GHG emissions, we need better reporting.
Without the right reporting into emissions, we will make the wrong decisions when it comes to the policies, technologies, and operational changes we need to make in the coming decades to tackle climate change.
This is an issue that is too important to get wrong, if we are serious about tackling it we need to understand what works and what doesn't.
Further, all of us need to regularly update our view of the world with facts so that we can ensure we are investing in the right solutions.
Further, all of us need to regularly update our view of the world with facts so that we can ensure we are investing in the right solutions.
I've recently read a fantastic book on this, Facfulness by @AnnaGapminder, @OlaRosling, and the late @HansRosling. I would absolutely recommend you read it.
Along with Black Box Thinking by @matthewsyed it is one of the most important books I've read in the last decade.
Along with Black Box Thinking by @matthewsyed it is one of the most important books I've read in the last decade.
It has made me question not only how I view our efforts to tackle shipping emissions, but also key industry issues like safety, seafarer welfare, and trade economics.
amazon.co.uk/Factfulness-Re…
amazon.co.uk/Factfulness-Re…
As a final point, I'd like to be absolutely clear that I believe that reducing GHG emissions is one of the most important problems the world faces and more needs to be done.
But the situation, in the UK at least, is improving.
But the situation, in the UK at least, is improving.
It is possible for a problem to be both bad and improving at the same time.
In fact, it is vitally important that we recognise this so that we can double down on what works and make the right decisions for the future.
In fact, it is vitally important that we recognise this so that we can double down on what works and make the right decisions for the future.
Thank you to @alai_pettigrew @SoutherlyBreeze and @shattockn from contributing to the conversation in the last 24 hours.
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