Thread by @LaurentRemie

[THREAD] [0/36] A look at the Syrian Opposition
Disclaimer: This isnt a full analysis since it is composed of hundreds of groups constantly switching alliances/splitting up and creating new groups.
I tried to include the largest & most important Groups/ Alliances

[1] I used the graphic above & this graphic here by Stanford University as a basis for my research. I focused on the evolution of western backed 'moderates' to groups like HTS. This graphic also hasnt been updated since 2017 so i made my own one (Tweet [2])(2nd=legend for StanF)

[2] It might seem a bit minimalistic but it's complicated to visualize all the groups which made up those alliances, as well as their foreign backers so i'll do that in Text.
I made sure the timeline is correct & that it can be used to understand the following descriptions.

[3]Okay so before we get started i'd like to add that I am just a student from a western country trying to understand this complicated conflict through english/german sources.
Much of the Info can be found online fe Wikipedia but I tried to make it to one coherent text.

[4] FSA-Free Syrian Army is an umbrella organization that was founded in 2011. It quickly lacked operational control and has since been mostly used as an 'identity' by many groups.
Infighting and no operational command where a problem from the very beginning. They were backed by:

[5] It is really important to point out that the FSA has never been a coherent group or factions under any particular leadership, the widespread use of it’s flag made it seem as if they were organized but it absolutely was not.

[6] To end the divided situation & create a centralized command structure the SMC (Supreme Military Council/Command) was formed in 2012. Its leader Salim Idriss wanted it to be a moderate alternative to jihadi militias.260 Rebel commanders joined together. Structure:

[7] The SMC received weapons&equipment from Saudi Arabia, Qatar,UK,US,France & more foreign actors. The attempted centralising of command didnt work as planned though since most groups stayed loyal to their leader & secured allies & funding from other sources as well.

[8] The attempt to make the opposition more moderate failed as well. As of 2013 the three biggest factions in the SMC, namely the al-Tawhid Brigade,Islam Brigade & Suqour al Sham Brigade joined together with the Al Nusra front et al to form the Islamic Coalition.

[9] While the SMC aligned factions,which pretty much made up the military wing of the organisation said they didnt break with SMC-only the political ''National Coalition for Syrian Revolutionary and Opposition Forces''(SNC) in reality Idriss had only a small Nr of fighters left.

[10] In the following years the SMC had little to no real control,in 2013 it was attacked by Al Nusra Front/and or ISIL on the turkish border,which stole much of the weapons gifted by foreign backers and was disbanded by the SNC in 2014.

[11] Back to 2013,creation of the Islamic Coalition
They said they did that because the SNC didnt represent them, and they were calling for an islamic framework based solely on Sharia law. The coalition also had almost no cooperation between groups and quickly reformed. Members:

[12] It is important to add that the Islamic Coalition didnt rule out a cooperation with ISIL.
latimes.com/world/la-xpm-2…

[13] Because there was no unity (beyond wanting sharia law) and centralised command structure the coalition quickly fell apart. The IC signatories Ahrar ash-Sham,Liwa al-Tawhid, Suqour al-Sham,Liwa al-Islam & Liwa al-Haqq formed the Islamic Front in the same year of 2013.

[14] Members of the Islamic front were,Ahrar ash-Sham,al-Tawhid Brigade, Jaysh al Islam,Liwa al Haqq, Suqour al-Sham, Ansar al Sham & Kurdish islamic front.
By the end of 2015 the IF was virtually defunct,the big factions retaining strong independence.

[15] The Islamic Front was allied with several rebel factions and funded by Saudi Arabia & the gulf states, Turkey is also listed as an ally.

[16] Ahrar al Sham absorbed the Liwa al Haqq, Suqour al-Sham Brigade & Kurdish Islamic front and banded together with other jihadi groups namely al Nusra Front to form the Jaysh al Fatah (Army of Conquest) operation room in 2015.

[17] The other biggest factions besides Ahrar al Sham was Jaysh al Islam, they did their own Thing for a while. In 2017 the Idlib branch joined Ahrar al Sham. In 2018 after they evacuated thousands of fighters from Douma they joined the TFSA in Idlib.

[18] Jaysh al Fatah started with 7 members, Ahrar al Sham & Al Nusra made up ~90%
Sham legion,Jaish al-Sunna,Liwa al-haqq, Ajnad al Sham, Jund al Aqsa.
The al Nusra Front & Jund al Aqsa are said to have strong Al Qa'ida ties.

[19] The Army of Conquest was quite succesfull and captured almost all of Idlib Governate. After the success more branches were established.
-Army of Conquest al Qalamoun->defeated->renamed Saraya al Sham
-Army of Conquest Southern region.

[20] Jaysh al Fatah 2015-17
-Jund al Aqsa & Sham Legion split from AoC
-Sham Legion rejoined
-Turkistan Islamic Party joined
-Nour al din al Zenki Movement joined
-Suqour al-Sham Brigade joined
-Jund al Aqsa joined Nusra in '16 but was kicked in '17

[21] Important to add that al Nusra Front rebranded as Jabhat Fatah al Sham in 2016 !!

[22] In 2017 the largest elements of the Army of Conquest/Jaysh al-Fatah the Jabhat Fatah al Sham (Former al Nusra) and Ahrar al Sham clashed after which more salafi elements of Ahrar al Sham joined al Nusra. Al Nusra also defeated Ahl al Sham which then joined Ahrar al Sham.

[23] Jabhat Fatah al Sham then kind of left the group and merged with Ansar al-Din Front, Jaysh al-Sunna, Liwa al-Haqq and the Nour al-Din al-Zenki movement to form Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS). HTS was led by Jabhat Fatah al Sham & former Ahrar al Sham leaders.

[24] The Ansar al-Din Front and the Nour al-Din al-Zenki movement later left HTS.
HTS is said to be an Al Qa'ida offspring and said to share al Nusras goal of an islamic state.
Nour al-Din al-Zenki was once funded by the USA.

[25] Although they tried to rebrand themselves syrians call them Hetesh, a prejorative like Daesh.

[26] For now back to the other Jaysh al Fatah split, JaF held itself kind of until 2018 when Ahrar al Sham merged with the Nour al-Din al-Zenki movement to form the Syrian Liberation Front.After the merger fighting broke out w/ their main rival HTS.

[27] The fighting ended with a ceasefire and gains for both sides.After that the Syrian Liberation Front (SLF) created a military council w/ Suqour al Sham, Sham Legion & Free Idlib Army in Maarrat al-Nu'man

[28] In August of 2018 the SLF joined the National Front for Liberation (est May'18) together with Suqour al-Sham Brigades, Jaysh al-Ahrar, Damascus Gathering, Unit 82 SWAT Forces, Free Hayan Brigade,Free North Brigade.

[29] The National Liberation Front (NFL on my self-made chart) was backed by turkey since its inception and thus all of their members receive funding/training/weapons from Turkey.
Members of the NFL are:

[30] At the beginning of 2019 there was heavy infighting between HTS & National Front for Liberation in Idlib province.
HTS defeated the turkish backed NFL and thus controls most of the territory. Since the new offensive in May 2019 they cooperate closer again.

[31] I hope this helps to understand why the U.S. Deputy Assistant Secretary Defense Michael Mulroy stated that “Idlib is essentially the largest collection of al Qaeda affiliates in the world.''

[32] My final conclusion is that it is seriously questionable how moderate these ''moderate rebels'' are.
Since the best attempts by foreign powers for a moderate control of them (or even ANY control) such as the SMC where utter failures.

[33] I mean the fact that the biggest factions of this ‘’moderate’’ SMC alliance left to create a group calling for an Islamic state with sharia law pretty much speaks for itself doesn’t it?

[34] And even if Western powers stopped their funding for most of these factions around '13'14- the gulf states get weapons from them and happily distributed them for the years after. Backing many groups that were definitely terrorists.

[35] And even the medias darling the good old FSA (which isnt even a group but more an idea of rebellion or even just a way to portray themselves as moderate in order to get funding)-has ties to Jund al Aqsa, HTS & even ISIL according to this Stanford document.

[36] We are now at the end of this thread, I hope you enjoyed it and could learn something from it-or even just share it in discussions if you are aware of all of this.
As always up for corrections /discussions :)

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