Thread by @Rebel44CZ

Thread about Syrian rebel use of ATGMs since the start of the SCW including statistics, and analysis of use - all based on archived visual evidence.

First some statistics of Syrian rebel use of ATGM since the start of SCW:
The total number of visually confirmed rebel ATGM shots since the start of the SCW is currently at 1831.
On the attached picture, you can see a graph of use per month.

The number of recorded rebel ATGM launches per year part 1:
2011: 0
2012: 6
2013: 122
2014: 163
2015: 503

The number of recorded rebel ATGM launches per year part 2:
2016: 638
2017: 214
2018: 62
2019: 123
----------------
total: 1831

ATGM launchers by the type used:
9K11 Malyutka (AT-3 Sagger): 32
9K111 Fagot (AT-4 Spigot): 217
9M113 Konkurs (AT-5 Spandrel): 163
9K115 Metis (AT-7 Saxhorn): 52
9M133 Kornet (AT-14 Spriggan): 145
BGM-71 TOW: 1093
Milan: 14
HJ-8 Red Arrow: 42
Unknown ATGM: 73

total: 1831

Split by targets of rebel ATGM shots:
tanks 615
technicals, trucks, etc.: 179
BMP: 120
Shilka: 38
fixed positions 232
SP Artillery: 27
artillery: 240
ATGM: 60
bulldozer: 109
infantry: 139
unclear: 54
aircraft: 9
other: 9

History of use: In the early part (between mid-2011 and early 2013) of the SCW ATGM use was rare due to the combination of factors - gradual escalation of fighting, minimal external supply, lack of established frontlines, ATGM shots not being recorded or footage being lost.

Starting in summer 2013 rebels started getting a small number of ATGMs from states that were supporting them. Battlefield successes also lead to the capture of a significant number of ATGMs. As rebels groups started to cooperate better they started to

utilize available ATGMs as well as defectors who were trained in their use (and filming those shots).

By late 2014 the USA approved that its allies (KSA, Turkey, etc.) can start supplying BGM-71 TOW-2A ATGMs and trained rebel crews, under the condition that these weapons will be supplied only to groups vetted by the USA and that to minimize the leakage to extremists,

rebels must take a video of the use of supplied TOW missiles (incl. showing the serial number of missile and launch itself) - while it wasn't necessary to make such videos public, rebels usually published them as propaganda - over time this turned to be rather popular among

rebel supporters and rebels started more regularly posting videos of other ATGM shots. Some states during this time also supplied rebels with ex-soviet models of ATGMs.

In late 2015, states supporting rebels supplied an increased number of ATGMs (mostly BGM-71 TOW-2A) to counteract Russian and Iranian intervention - this has proven to be effective at slowing down the advance of pro-regime forces and inflicting heavy losses to attacking troops.

When rebel-held part of Aleppo fell to the pro-regime offensive in late 2016 most state supporters of rebel cause decided to stop most of the material support, including the supply of ATGMs. This resulted in northern Syria rebels exhausting most of their ATGMs in early 2017.

After that, the regime moved their offensive forces to crush rebel pockets in central and southern Syria (who had an only small number of ATGM due to being besieged) as well as ISIS territory weakened by fighting against the US supported SDF.

Fighting in northern Syria restarted in late April 2019 and at that time Turkey started supplying 9M133 Kornet (AT-14 Spriggan) to rebels, which helped to slow down (and sometimes temporarily reverse) the regime advance.

Analysis of use: ATGMs are primarily designed to be used against enemy armored vehicles, but during the SCW rebels have shown that ATGMs can be very effectively used against other targets. When ATGMs were rare, rebels kept them for the use against regime tanks

and other high-value targets - like aircraft on the ground (when rebels got sufficiently close to regime airbases). When rebels had sufficient number of ATGMs and assurances of future supply they have significantly increased frequency of attacks on lighter targets

including technicals, earth moving equipment, groups of infantry and fixed positions.

An ordinary observer might view such use of ATGM as ineffective or wasteful, but eliminating such "soft" targets (especially when it can be done with 1st shot from long distance) is very important to degrade the effectiveness of enemy forces - for example,

earth moving equipment helps the enemy quickly fortify newly gained territory. Killing and wounded several (often around dozen per ATGM hit) enemy infantry troops from a safe distance is also very effective of ammunition.

The same is true about eliminating enemy HMG and ATGM positions in support or in preparation for an offensive.

Rebels lack accurate artillery or an air force, but on shorter distances, ATGMs like 9M133 Kornet (AT-14 Spriggan) and BGM-71 TOW-2A with their respective range of 5500 and 3750 meters, can be used as small PGMs - often hitting critical targets (armored or not).

The overall accuracy of rebel ATGM shots has been great (achieving accuracy around or above 90%), with exception of 9K11 Malyutka (AT-3 Sagger) shots, since this ATGM is very hard to operate. More modern SACLOS ATGM has proven to be accurate even against moving targets

- with regime forces rarely being able to spot incoming ATGM before it was too late.

Summary: Syrian rebels have proven that ATGMs (especially if provided in large numbers) are highly effective support weapon that can compensate for the lack of some capabilities that is common for non-state actors -significantly improving chances of success of the operation.

Just like any other weapon, ATGMs can't win the war alone, but unless the enemy is extremely well prepared to deal with them, they can seriously complicate enemy offensive and defensive operations and inflict heavy losses against high-value assets.

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