Henrik Zeberg Profile picture
Aug 18, 2019 16 tweets 14 min read Read on X
Good morning! 😁Deflationary phase is developing in economy. Stay tuned for my perspectives on coming developments in markets based on charts - technical and fundamental analysis #HZupdates thread coming up!
SP500 recovered some of the loses from early trading this week. Still, I think we have seen the top of the Expanding Diagonal, and we are currently in the Deflationary part of the crisis, where growth in economy is rolling over. Target ~2050 by Q1/Q2 2020 #HZupdates
#SP500 - will we see rally to 2950 for pot. top of wave 2 (black) before reversal and strong decline? That would close the gap in market from early Aug. #HZupdates
#Copper seems to be on the verge of embarking on the next leg down. Broke trendline - and has consolidated just below. A strong drop in Copper is deflationary and aligns with strong drop in #SP500 as real economy deteriorates. LT Target (A or B) is below 2008-bottom #HZupdates
Zooming in on the "Break" on #Copper chart, gives us a clear view of the consolidation below trendline. This is pot. very ominous for what is about to happen in real economy and in stock market - coming weeks, months and years! Deflation - before stagflation #HZupdates
#AUDUSD sends same message. Breaking below important area ~0.69-0.70 in LT-chart signals much lower levels to come. LT-target remains ~0.49. Again, this speaks of #deflationary environment for coming months, where #commodities and #equities will perform badly #HZupdates
Zooming in on #AUDUSD, we observe consolidation - below 0.69-0.70-area. This is NOT a bottoming pattern - but a short pause before pot. powerful break lower. #Deflation #HZupdates
#CRB sending same message. Consolidating below trendline of triangle before push lower in major Ending Diagonal. Deflationary! Much lower levels to come before final LT-bottom #HZupdates
#Oil sends same message. Consolidation in triangle before next thrust down. Deflationary! Target <20USD before LT-bottom #HZupdates
So economy enters deflationary bust, which will develop for months to come. Fed will finally engage at full force, which will put in SECULAR-bottom for commodities (Q1/Q2 2020). This will create bounce in economy and markets only to push economy into #stagflation #HZupdates
The #DEFLATIONARY part of the crisis will not be kind to #Gold as it delivers to its promise of providing LIQUIDITY. Top of B may be here or ~1600 but rally since 2015 is a correctional move. Wave C will take us to LT-bottom in 890-990-area before #STAGFLATION sets in #HZupdates
Crisis epi-center is likely to be #Europe which is a mess. #DAX looks terrible (notice decade-long divergence) and a major decline is likely to unfold. The target area speaks of major political, societal and economic crisis! The severity cannot be emphasized enough!! #HZupdates
#ECB will throw everything on the #Deflationary fire, which will crash #EURUSD. Notice LT-trendline (black) from 2008-bottom. This has just been broken. We may see ST-bounce - but EURUSD is heading towards min. 0.91 #HZupdates
As the #Deflationary part of the crisis unfolds, #DXY #USD will be only place to hide. DXY is likely to rally >111 before Fed is forced to step in and deliberately weaken strong #Greenback. This will mark the secular bottom in #commodities and send economy into #Stagflation
That is all for this week's #HZupdates. Please note consistency in the forecast on deflation to come from >1 yr ago. Only miss has been with #gold which is correcting in ZigZag-pattern and not in my earlier predicted Triangle😐Well, we all make mistakes! Stay safe! KR. from Cph😁
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More from @HenrikZeberg

Jan 12
Major #BlowOffTop before #Recession. The Recession will be very severe - and cause the largest Market Crash since the Crash of 1929.

This is my Outlook (January 2024)!

In early 2023, I said that I would be met with doubts and a question of "Why Recession?, as the stock market soared into late 2023 - and continues to do so into 2024.

Now we are here! My doubters are rising (and will continue to do so, as the market strengthens coming months)

The arguments are:

1) "We already had the Recession in '22"

2) "Fed is aware and will not allow it"

3) "Fed has changed the Game"

4) "We are in a new liquidity cycle"

5) "It will not be allowed in a Presidential Election year"

..... and so on!

All chitchat - and based in a complete lack of understanding of the Business Cycles.

So - why Recession? (....this is giving more than I should - so stay tuned😉)Image
First argument is based on our Business Cycle Model developed with Swissblock and @Negentropic_

Our Business Cycle has flashed a Recession signal in 2023. Leading Indicators have crashed under our Equilibrium Line.

In 80 years of data, the Recession Signal from our Model has NEVER been wrong. No false signals - ever!Image
Second argument goes on the Yield Inversion.

Yield inversion is a signal of coming Recession. Not immidiately - but eventually.

Analysts have observed this signal in 2023 - but due to impatience dismissed it. This is a great mistake.

From the bottom of the Yield Inversion, we normally see 12-15 months before a Recessions sets in. The bottom was in June 2023.

This signal is very much alive!Image
Read 9 tweets
Jan 15, 2022
On Wednesday, we got a CPI print of 7% over the duration of a year. Fastest since 1982! Surely, everybody can see, that #inflation is here to stay!?

NO!

WHY?

Because of the real gauges of inflation which tells us, that current inflation is due to Supply and Demand issues!
Gold Miners will soar, when REAL ECONOMIC INFLATION is here. For now, they are dead in the water - which is 100% in line with Elliott Wave predictions. "Wave C" is unfolding in 5 waves down. As surplus demand is being flushed from the system, Deflation will reemerge
Beautiful chart for GDX. Observe top in 2011 and nice decline into wave A. Then a clear ABC-correction into top in 2020, before Miners again have started a decline. Observe top in 2020! Right at 61.8% fib. Beautiful! 😉
Decline in wave C should take us just below bottom from 2015
Read 6 tweets
Jan 10, 2021
@RaoulGMI Good Morning! You asked what is happening to #Gold and #Silver. This is my take - a summary of the governing Thesis on TheZebergReport.com for a long time! Hope you can use the input! 🙋‍♂️🙂
Since ~2000 we have been in Kondratiev's Winter. A period where GLOBAL DEBT causes low and falling growth rates. Central banks try to counter this by printing money (Monetary Stimulus). However, Deflationary forces from debt causes deflations to unfold - despite extreme measures
To the frustration of Central Banks, they cannot create inflation despite extreme money printing. They stimulate by infusing money into the system but cannot make the money circulate. Velocity drops dramatically. What they miss...You cannot solve a solvency problem with Liquidity
Read 14 tweets
Nov 22, 2020
Why do I think #Gold, #Bitcoin are about to tumble? Because of my cross-market-analyses approach with >100 charts pointing to a deflationary bust AND the Elliott Wave structures for Gold, Bitcoin and USD. Let's try investigate 1) Deflationary Thesis and 2) Elliott Wave-structures
The Deflationary Thesis is due to the patterns shaping up in all commodities. Commodities drive inflation. First GSCI Commodity Index - a very clear Ending Diagonal Triangle (Descending Wedge). Calls for DEFLATIONARY BUST before MAJOR SECULAR BOTTOM. TheZebergReport.com
#Wheat which is part of #Commodities setting direction for Inflation. Same pattern! Descending Wedge. Calls for Deflationary Bust - before Major SECULAR BOTTOM. Deflation before New Inflationary Regime! TheZebergReport.com
Read 22 tweets
Aug 24, 2020
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Read 4 tweets
May 9, 2020
These are the "events" we experience during Kondratiev's Winter. We have seen some of these but they will play out a range of times. First in 2000-03, then worse during 2007-09 and now the big one 2020-23(?). Some major dominoes are about to fall - before we reach end of Winter
Major events still to be seen (apart from rest which will be repeated and become much worse than before!): 1) Pension fund crisis 2) Run from paper money 3) War (hope not!) 4) Debt resolution (Monetary Reset?). We are NO where near end of this major crisis, which ends K's Winter
My LT #Copper chart tells me, that we may very well see the crisis (with various phases) continue until end-21 or beginning of '22. That is for the bottom in the economic activity which means, that repercussions may be felt way into 2023-25. No where near the end of this crisis!
Read 19 tweets

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