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This is particularly true when u compare the way Economy was handled by Vajpayee govt. The then govt is credited with unleashing the Telecom Revolution, Insurance Sector reforms and huge infrastructure development in less than 5 years. (1)
Such was the scale of reforms unleashed by the Vajpayee govt that the next 5 years were spent basking in the reflected glory of those reforms: The heydays of 10.3% growth rate, which led to a period of fiscal profligacy and runaway inflation under the UPA FMs.(2)
Lets just say that such was the profligacy and corruption unleashed by UPA 1& 2, that the nation is only now, after 5 years coming out of the hangover of that. (The nature of the beast is such that economic reforms bear fruits with a lag.(3)
Therefore implying: that if we did not have
a) Tight monetary policy (R3, Urjit Patel & MPC initiated) - leading to a consumption clampdown
b) Tight fiscal policy coupled - leading to low govt spend
c) Real Estate slump brought on by an incomplete RERA - (4)
a) Tight monetary policy (R3, Urjit Patel & MPC initiated) - leading to a consumption clampdown
b) Tight fiscal policy coupled - leading to low govt spend
c) Real Estate slump brought on by an incomplete RERA - (4)
d) over emphasis on social scheme spend -
e) Not enough emphasis on service Sector reforms -given that Service Sector jobs have contributed the most,
f) BSVI norms for Auto Sector causing a temporary demand slump.. (5)
e) Not enough emphasis on service Sector reforms -given that Service Sector jobs have contributed the most,
f) BSVI norms for Auto Sector causing a temporary demand slump.. (5)
g) and a global cautionary environment, we would not today be in this predicament. Given all these a 5% is not that abysmal a performance.
That being said this economic slow down is momentary and reversion to a higher mean is inevitable, since: (6)
That being said this economic slow down is momentary and reversion to a higher mean is inevitable, since: (6)
- The NPA mess is over. Banks are flush with funds.
- Monetary Policy has been eased. Lower rates are being transmitted now
- IBC, NCLT have started working seamlessly now.
- GST teething troubles have drastically reduced. (7)
- Monetary Policy has been eased. Lower rates are being transmitted now
- IBC, NCLT have started working seamlessly now.
- GST teething troubles have drastically reduced. (7)
- Effort is underway to ease Real Estate bottle neck.
- The new norms for Auto Sector kick off from October, which means a pick up in new demand.
- Defense manufacturing is happening now in India.
- Beleaguered IT sector is slowly feeling better. (8)
- The new norms for Auto Sector kick off from October, which means a pick up in new demand.
- Defense manufacturing is happening now in India.
- Beleaguered IT sector is slowly feeling better. (8)
To summarize a 5% quarterly GDP growth in the April to June, traditionally the slowest quarter, is more than likely the lowest rung of our economy. The future henceforth appears way way better! (9)
