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Services. Remember them? Massively impacted by no-deal Brexit, but little discussed because we don't really understand them. The equivalent of the two day lorry queue at Dover could be the slow flow or even suspension of Eurostar services from London to Paris and Brussels. 1/n
Regular Eurostar travelers will know that French authorities check passports in a very small space in St Pancras International. They'll also know that non-EU travelers take longer to process. Well that will be us from November 1st given a no-deal Brexit.
As from November 1st UK citizens do not have the right to travel to work in the EU. We have the right to 90 days in 180 visa free for non work purposes. Both of these now need to be checked at points of entry to the EU. That will take more time. That means delays and queues. 3/
The Government has provided virtually no guidance for UK service providers going to the EU, be they consultants or hauliers, journalists or trainers, travel reps or maintenance engineers. Virtually all will need work visas, often tough to obtain. 4/
The levels of queues at St Pancras, or airports around the EU (we'll be in the non-EU line remember) will depend on how strictly national authorities, not the EU, enforce the law. But many individuals will simply not be able to do the jobs they currently do 5/
To be clear, this isn't about residency rights, which will cause huge problems e.g. with pensions, health care, rights to work across the EU. This is about those thousands, hundreds of thousands, traveling to work across the EU every year, no longer able to do so 6/
Visas are one of the most difficult problems any service exporter face, whether in the US (where a trade deal probably won't help) or elsewhere outside the EU. Now we'll add the EU to this list. That has to harm the ability of UK companies to sell services, and goods 7/
Yes, the problems with visas could hit our goods exports, because those specialist maintenance engineers can't easily travel to the EU to service the goods their company may be selling. And engineering products is a major export sector for the UK 8/
Of course the same works into the UK - EU citizens may need visas to work that will be hard to obtain (or not, Government plans in this area are not clear). But obviously it isn't the same services - inbound workers are frequently in farming, hospitality and caring services 9/
The UK is benefiting economically from selling high cost services to the EU, and importing labour easily to fill shortage areas. The former will be hard to replicate in any other market. The latter is likely to add bureaucracy, though EU can be substituted 10/
Visa access to the UK market is something we can offer in trade deals. Other countries want it. But major markets like the EU and US hold far higher value as huge markets, and it is very difficult to get particularly good access. 11/
My attention is drawn to this helicopter company providing training services across the EU. How do they do this after a no-deal Brexit? Oh, and it isn't just about whether their staff can actually work in the EU, there are then other issues... 12/ helioperations.co
So you may think you can just hire staff from the EU to work for you in the EU. Maybe, But you may need to legally establish in the EU, and may find that is not actually straightforward, that there are various restrictions on activities, or on your structure 13/
Then there are the qualifications that people might need to get a work visa in the EU, which could be lawyers, but equally could be in some countries for tour guides or ski instructors. The EU has been removing barriers based on nationality, but only for EU citizens 14/
Similarly the licenses you may need to work in particular areas, that again are being tackled for other EU countries. Also how you are going to handle the data that needs to be transferred from EU to UK, when the UK has no data agreement with the EU 15/
I'm not sure whether there will be extra work handling billing, accounting and tax between EU and UK in no-deal Brexit, but I expect so. It is checking all of these small things that can be the difference between being in market and not 16/
How much difference these service restrictions will make on GDP is not clear - because we don't really know what will happen in the financial services sectors. But they will make a huge difference to many UK businesses and workers, as well as travelers. 17/
It would be good to hear, in the little time MPs are allowed to scrutinise the Government, or in the articles written by media, more about services. We're supposed to be a services economy. Over half of our exports are probably services including those embedded in goods sales 18/
Concluding, the TL:DR, UK services exports to the EU are badly affected by losing the right to work there, and we've heard virtually nothing about the issues. Government no-deal notices say nothing. It's time to take this seriously 19/ end
PS just reading some replies I am reminder of those attending conferences, where visa requirements are often unclear. Worth recalling how UK regularly denies visas to non-EU attendees, including at events other parts of Government organise....
PPS another one, European headquarters of global companies based in London - very difficult for them to move people to and from the EU after a no-deal Brexit. Likelihood over time they will relocate significant numbers away from the UK
