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The Prime Minister cannot convincingly say that he wants a deal with the EU - because his actions have shown that there are greater priorities for his Government - several of which are in direct contradiction to getting a deal unless the EU drop red lines 1/
There is a clearly a priority of a US trade deal. We saw that from the fact several ministers of the government had talks with the US while Johnson was insisting on no talks with the EU without the backstop being dropped. 2/
A realistic US trade deal includes measures on agriculture and Geographical Indications incompatible with a realistic EU deal preventing border infrastructure with Ireland 3/
Reclaiming Conservative voters from the Brexit party is a higher priority than a deal with the EU. EU asks will almost certainly not be acceptable to Brexit Party supporters (or some of Johnson's own Cabinet). 4/
Leave the EU under any circumstances on 31 October has a higher priority for the Government than getting a deal. This is related to winning back Brexit Party voters, but also means not even technical extensions to pass legislation related to a deal are not acceptable 5/
So any Brexit deal Johnson gets must allow him to gain votes from the Brexit party, leave the EU on October 31, and agree a US trade deal. The only deal meeting the first criteria would involve no monetary payment, and unconditional free trade. 0% chance the EU would agree 6/
Leaving the EU on 31 October with a deal almost certainly requires more Parliamentary time than has been allocated so far to pass the relevant legislation. Not impossible, but you'd need to be very convinced of the scheduling to believe in it 7/
The US trade deal is the most complex one. In theory if they dropped agriculture and a few other demands it could be compatible with an EU deal. In practice, dream on, the US doing a comprehensive deal without agriculture is staggeringly unlikely 8/
Which then leads back to the backstop having to be dropped and alternative arrangements put in place so the UK can have a US trade deal. Government can't put these forward to avoid angering Brexit party supporters, so use the Alternative Arrangements Commission as a proxy 9/
The Alternative Arrangements Commission proposals don't come close to meeting EU red lines on the backstop, as well as being criticised by among others the Northern Ireland business community. But that's all Number 10 has to show they're trying for a deal... 10/
Johnson might like a deal, but has trapped his administration in a place where it is obvious he can't have one, short of remarkable change in EU position, or UK u-turn. Trying now to persuade MPs otherwise lacks any credibility 11/ end
PS @pmdfoster has a similar mega thread evolving that reaches the same conclusion, though with more focus on Ireland. But same point - the Government has no credible Brexit negotiating plan
@pmdfoster PPS These would be good thoughts on getting a deal if that's what Johnson wanted, but all run into his Brexit Party problem...
