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Thread on the issue of when there can sensibly be an election. Here is a very good argument against a 15/10 election date (unless an extension is secured down): it leaves no time for the government or Parliament to make the legislation needed for a crash out on Halloween.
Combine that with two further points: (a) whatever the rules on purdah, civil servants can’t sensibly prepare logistics for a crash out while Ministers are concentrating on campaigning and cannot take the countless tricky and important decisions needed; and
(b) Ministers can’t sensibly start trying to negotiate a deal (still supposed to be Johnson’s preference) while campaigning.
The deal won’t be “negotiated” at the EU Council on 17/10: the deal would have to be negotiated before then and agreed for formal approval on that day. And there is only 1 day between the election result on 16/10 and the Council.
The idea we could have an election campaign leading up to 15/10 *and* either get a deal, or sensibly prepare for a crash out Brexit, before 31/10 is ludicrous and irresponsible. The 31/10 date can’t now responsibly be left open as a possibility.
Problem: if Johnson got a majority on 15/10 he could probably get appoval of a crash out under clause 1(2) of the Bill through by 19/10 (check with experts on Parliamentary procedure). That would relieve him of the need to seek an extension.
So passage of the Bill does not preclude a crash out.
You could take the view that in an election campaign Johnson would be under pressure to explain how crash out on 31/10 was still remotely feasible and suffer the consequences if he couldn’t do so (or rule it out).
But that might not be a safe bet: in which case an election will have to take place after the extension is actually agreed with the EU and implemented. /ends
FN: @bbcnickrobinson has got this: good question to @sajidjavid on how on earth a deal could (a) be negotiated and written up between 15/10 and 17/10 and (b) then got through Parliament by 31/10. Javid’s answer hopeless (and did not even try to grapple with (a)).
Indeed, Javid conceded the obvious point that the EU has little incentive to negotiate anything with a government that might well be on its way out.
FN2: Johnson could be asked to promise (and include in his manifesto) that if re-elected he will try to extend to 31/1 in order to have adequate time for post-election negotiation/crash out prep. The issue then is what worth can be attached to such a promise.
