Thread by @DrSimEvans

Big news on today's FT frontpage:

The govt has effectively weakened UK climate goals by using "flexibilities" under the Climate Change Act.

This goes against the "unequivocal advice" of official adviser @theCCCuk

THREAD on what you need to know

ft.com/content/cd76a6…

Govt plans to roll over 88MtCO2e from UK’s 2nd carbon budget (2013-17), which was overachieved – mostly due to recession.

CCC in Feb: “[This] would not be consistent with the Paris Agreement” & would allow emissions to rise when they should be falling.

theccc.org.uk/wp-content/upl…

This graph shows why the govt might want to make use of these “flexibilities”: The UK is set to miss its targets in the 2020s by a country mile.

carbonbrief.org/in-depth-the-u…

The 88MtCO2e set to be carried forward is large relative to the margin by which the fourth and fifth carbon budgets are due to be missed (145 / 180MtCO2e):

carbonbrief.org/in-depth-the-u…

More immediately, those 88MtCO2e will mean emissions would be allowed to *increase* during the 3rd carbon budget 2018-2022.

Not a great look for a country hoping to host the COP26 UN climate talks next year.

theccc.org.uk/wp-content/upl…

In May, @ChiefExecCCC warned that using flex would be “a sign [Govt are] not taking [the net-zero goal] seriously”:

carbonbrief.org/in-depth-the-u…

In its February letter to government, the CCC also said use of “flexibilities” would “undermin[e] the integrity” of the Climate Change Act b/c the surplus "is not due to policy…[and] existing carbon budgets are already too loose".

theccc.org.uk/wp-content/upl…

The CCC's "unequivocal advice" was not to do it.

Oh dear.

theccc.org.uk/wp-content/upl…