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Finally complete - the latest Foster epic thread today casting a careful eye on what Ireland will do with the border in a no-deal Brexit. Horribly sensitive, but no running from the difficult decision that is border checks into or out of Ireland.
I think it's even more complex than painted here - because we don't know how long the UK can continue to hold the implausible no checks line (not sustainable according to official analysis), and how local populations will react to any decisions that are made.
Bluntly the risks of no-deal to the island of Ireland are sufficiently high that no serious politician with any concern for the local population should ever seriously consider it - notwithstanding the false claims by those who claim no-deal and no-border are compatible
The risks of no-deal to Ireland are also the UK's single strongest point of leverage on a Brexit deal - for example before the EU accepted a UK wide backstop many doubted they would do so, as it would give the UK too much benefit. The UK could still get more from a deal, but...
If we say no-deal isn't really a threat to Ireland, and claim alternative solutions can do it all, we'll leave anyway, there's no substantial basis to talk. As we are currently finding. I heard talk that no-deal threats would get Ireland to back down. Instead they have to prepare
The risk of no-deal to Ireland is also why the EU won't, despite talk to the contrary, ever refuse extensions. It is also why any suggestions of 10 year cut-offs to develop solutions would be difficult to completely rule out for the EU. And they never completely did.
Anything, anything, but refusing to engage with the serious issue of the Northern Ireland border, will get a response from the EU. So what did we do? Another mistake.
And Ireland and the EU have serious thinking to do, and it will not be easy. /end
And Ireland and the EU have serious thinking to do, and it will not be easy. /end
