Thread by @lewis_goodall

YELLOWHAMMER DOC PUBLISHED- key points:

For a start concedes, despite all the talk of “being ready”, that public and business readiness will be at a low level whatever the govt does.

Govt seems to concede the EU isn’t going to be nearly as badly effected as us. Talks of “small number of cases” where the EU will be negatively affected as us (in those areas, docs say, they might want to strike side deals)

Confirming my leaked dft docs story from last week, yellowhammer confirms severe impact of no deal at Dover.

-HGV traffic reduces to 40-60% of current levels
-could last for 3 months before getting to 50-50%
-could last “significantly longer”
-HGVs could face delay of 2 days

Confirmation, if any were needed, you just need to watch @SkyNews to stay in the Brexit loop.

This is combined with extra delays for passengers at both ends.

Oh boy, the govt also predicts that though there will be no disruption to electricity supplies in event of no deal brexit, there will be “significant electricity price increases” for domestic and commercial consumers.

Yellowhammer doc confirms that there would be medical supply shortages in event of no deal because they’re so dependent on Dover crossing. They say the govt cannot stockpile all the medicines that we need.

Docs suggest our domestic food supply chain will be at risk from outbreak of disease. They say we will not be able to match medical supply stockpiling we even had *in March*. They also dismiss the possibility of bringing in supplies by air.

FOOD: with no deal certain types of fresh food supply will decrease. No food overall shortages but will reduce availability of choice on the shelves. Govt believes there’s a possibility of panic buying which could make things worse.

We should still have clean water in no deal (a relief) but there is still a risk of a breakdown in the chemical supply chain (admittedly a low one) where “urgent action” would have to be taken to ensure access to a safe water supply.

And basically, don’t get ill in the EU after October 31st because the government hasn’t really got a clue what fight might befall you (chances are, you’re paying). Says the EU is refusing to accept offers by the UK to fund treatments.

And if you think we are going to have it bad, thank goodness you’re not in Gibraltar.

It’s going to be a good few months to commit a crime in Britain as “significant amounts of police resource” will be taken up dealing with “protests and counter protests across the UK”. That sounds ugly.

Add into the mix some fuel shortages for good measure.

Oh dear God this scares me.

And, naturally, it will according to the government’s own documents; be the poor who the biggest price from the political and economic disruption associated with a no deal.

And remember that whole “we’ll never impose checks/a border in Northern Ireland”. The government’s own analysis says that in anything other than the short term, that is completely “unsustainable.”

Northern Irish business, already struggling, will be dealt a big blow: “the expectation is some businesses stop trade or relocate to avoid paying the tariff which will make them uncompetitive.” Or consumers will pay in the form of higher prices.

In Northern Ireland, the government also expects:

-protests and direction action with road blockages
-big growth in black market economy
-that will bolster criminal and dissident groups, especially in border communities

😳

Fishing: up to 282 EU/EEA vessels could enter UK waters illegally. Docs say likelybtoncause anger and clashes between fishing boats.

Social care: no immediate impact but over time wage inflation (with fewer EU migrants) may lead to social care providers going bust/leaving market 4-6 months after exit.

Govt source tells me that we should be clear that this is a cabinet office secretariat document which looks at worst case scenarios. They say it doesn’t assign relative probability. All might happen or some or few. Therefore not necessarily predictions.

Source also tells me this is the version which most closely resembles Sunday Times leak a few weeks ago. Nonetheless a new one is being compiled taking into account govt policy and will be published in due course.

Nonetheless, clearly, this is a pretty grim document and will beg the question how any responsible government could entertain a policy from which even some of this might flow.