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Assuming Oleg Smolyakov was indeed the much-touted CIA spy in Russia's Presidential Administration, a thread about some possible implications... /1
He would have had significant but limited access to classified materials: the Russians practice need-to-know, and only certain documents would cross his desk, but he was nonetheless in an environment where sensitive issues would be discussed /2
That said, I’d have my doubts as to whether he could offer hard certainties about serious, high-level intel activities such as election interference. I suspect the best he could offer is inference and hearsay - potentially v revealing but also subjective /3
Given that presidential foreign policy adviser Ushakov seems to have recruited him personally as an aide, this may finally trigger the long-expected departure of the 72-year-old from the PA /4
If so, the next domino might be for Foreign Minister Lavrov's repeated pleas to be allowed to leave his post finally to be heeded...only for him to replace Ushakov. “Just when I thought I was out, they pull me back in” /5
That would make sense: Lavrov's policy traction and international authority have dwindled since 2014 and he is clearly frustrated, but Putin still respects (if often ignores) him, so this would be a suitable halfway-house /6
Finally, will this trigger inquisitions in the Pres. Admin, for my money the single most powerful institution in Russia? I imagine the FSB would love to flex its muscles over one for the few bodies with even more authority. We'll see. /end
And yes, it's Smolenkov not Smolyakov - serves me right for tweeting first thing in the morning!
