Moscow clearly seeks to turn the Azov Sea into a Russian basin, and to use it to bring leverage to bear on Kyiv. It wants to demonstrate its capacity to act without having to worry about external constraint. /2
Thus is demonstrates military and (geo)political preponderance, but in what is intended as a limited way. /3
It also brings economic pressure to bear on Ukraine, but specifically Mariupol, Berdiansk & Henichesk, denying them port, pilot & transit fees. Overall estimated cost already $20-40M pa. not a prelude to invasion, an attempt to create polit pressure for deal with R. /4
We also shouldn’t rule out genuine paranoias about attack on #KerchBridge, exacerbated by blowhards who advocate just that. Naval presence, FSB Coast Guards, Rosgvardiya marine bde, etc there because felt there is danger /5
Of course, none of this in any way will be affected by Ukr declaring martial law (if it does). That is pure domestic polit posturing. Tragic irony is both Putin & Poroshenko seek to drape selves in flag & camo /6
So now what? Calls for Western naval forces to be sent into Azov dangerous, impractical & illegal. Conversely, Moscow can not be allowed to feel can act w impunity. Obv there will be the usual statements of support & concern, which need to be done, even if pretty meaningless /7
But what practical responses? Actually covering that $20-40M in lost revenue and investing it in Mariupol etc cheaper than any open-ended force deployment, demonstrates real commitment & undermines Russia's polit/econ gambit, for 1 thing /8
More broadly, even tho crisis clearly part of wider R-Ukr conflict, q of access and security of Kerch Bridge shd be uncoupled. Take what R says at face value and call bluff/address real concern, but link to maintenance of navigation as per 2003/4 agreement /9
That agreement is what makes it illegal for 3rd party ships to enter Azov Sea. Make it clear that if Moscow wants to tear up agreement or fail to observe it, then it can expect NATO 'goodwill visits' to Mariupol, etc. /10
In other words, understand Moscow's real agenda, while addressing the one it admits to, showing stock but not yet trying to use. Also, Poro she stop trying to use for polit capital, Kyiv's stock is tarnished enough. /11 and end
