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David Henig
@DavidHenigUK
, 4 tweets, 1 min read Read on Twitter
Essentially presenting the proposals of the Alternative Arrangements Commission to an EU which has already expressed grave doubts about their workability, while also not bearing in mind the opposition of Northern Ireland businesses
The dilemma the EU face is whether to encourage the UK though the proposals are nowhere close to acceptable, reject the plans outright, or try to find a new form of words including both the existing backstop rebranded and this approach, knowing MPs will probably reject that
Hence some variations in messaging in recent days from different EU players. Politically challenging when part of the UK Government's play is to blame the EU for rejecting what will be seen by many as perfectly reasonable proposals.
The fundamental question is the guarantee that a backstop provides. The two sides remain far apart on that.

(think the UK Gov should also answer questions on why they are putting forward plans rejected by NI business and the EU already)

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More from @DavidHenigUK see all

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David Henig
@DavidHenigUK
Any fair reading of today in Brexit land would have to conclude that the chances of a deal are low - I'd suggest no greater than 5% by the end of October.
Recall that either or both sides have to move for there to be a deal.

We have heard no indication whatsoever that this will be the EU - regardless of the rights and wrongs of the press conference that was a sign of a negotiation not going well.
The EU position seems to be we need a guarantee, please come up with a proposal where that isn't the backstop.

The UK position is a restatement that the backstop is a non-starter, and to talk about parts of a potential replacement. Nothing like a whole solution.
Read 8 tweets
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David Henig
@DavidHenigUK
If I'm following this correctly our strong "Hulk" leader has just refused a joint press conference because of some booing.

Playing to the domestic media is fine if you can actually justify it. We've been flunking that in Brexit talks since the start.
UK politicians should be saying this (and to be fair a few have stood up)
But honestly, the PM has just mucked up a diplomatic visit to Luxembourg. Badly enough that the host PM has given a press conference with an empty lectern next to him. This is absolutely basic diplomacy. Something has gone badly wrong.
Read 14 tweets
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David Henig
@DavidHenigUK
From a negotiating point of view the commitment Johnson made in his Merkel press conference to producing proposals in 30 days looks increasingly like he walked straight into an EU trap
There is an argument expressed by some across Europe that the EU has been too tough in Brexit talks, and this could be used as another example. I'm not convinced there are good specific alternatives though, and the EU is a tough negotiator and wishes to remain so.
The UK statement in markedly more positive in tone and content than the EU version.

If two sides are working well in a negotiation this doesn't tend to happen.
Read 3 tweets

Related threads

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Peter Foster
@pmdfoster
So. Am told in PM's #Brexit meeting David Frost told MPs there IS a plan:

The alternative to the Irish backstop he said is (wait for it) "alternative arrangements"...and the hope the EU will look on them more positively if Govt wins today.

Where to start?! 1/Thread.
Frost also said there was no point in tabling these AAs now, since the EU would shoot them down.

But the threat of 'no deal' would change their position which, as @MichelBarnier staked out at the weekend in @telegraph is that AAs must deliver 'fully open' Irish border. /2
@MichelBarnier @Telegraph AAs cannot do that, particularly if the @BorisJohnson plan is have all UK leaving the CU and SM.

Essentially we're going back to maxfac? That required 80+% exemptions.

You'll hear talk about 'authorised economic operators' - but that doesn't work for small traders /3
Read 18 tweets
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Joe Barnes
@Barnes_Joe
1: With the withdrawal agreement looking all but dead, Austria's Brexit negotiator @GSchusterschitz has made some interesting remarks regarding the 'undemocratic backstop' that Boris Johnson wants to abolish.
2: Johnson has stressed the current insurance policy to avoid a hard border on Ireland after Brexit must be removed for their to be any chance of a deal. But Schusterschitz has suggested the EU doesn't believe offering concessions will deliver a Commons majority for the deal.
3: Schusterschitz says: 'The problem is even if we were to agree to the British demands and would remove the backstop for Northern Ireland, it would by no means mean that this deal would get a majority in the British Parliament.'
Read 13 tweets
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Nick Gutteridge
@nick_gutteridge
At an @OpenEurope event in Brussels with members of the Alternative Arrangements Commission who are presenting the results of their report on tech solutions to the Irish border to a European audience. Will put quotes below 👇
First up @GregHands says the purpose of the AA Commission 'is to try and find a deal that can work'. Says: 'To be absolutely clear we're not a No Deal body. We're exactly the opposite. We're dedicated to finding a solution that will work in London, Brussels, Dublin and Belfast.'
Hands says the recommendations in its report will take 2-3 years to implement but can be agreed before October 31. 'None of it involves yet to be discovered technology, tech unicorns. All of it involves existing procedures somewhere in the world or even used by the EU itself.'
Read 20 tweets
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Peter Foster
@pmdfoster
So what to make of @BorisJohnson comments on #Brexit and the Irish border?

My guess is that it is aimed more at Dublin than at Brussels....some thoughts. 1/thread

telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/…
@BorisJohnson First, the content of what he is saying.

1. The Bill. He wants to attach strings about "when and how" the money is paid over.

This is old Brexiteer (@DavidDavisMP) thinking - the 'bill' as down payment on future, rather than EU view of settling debt /2
@BorisJohnson @DavidDavisMP It's a sensitive subject in Brussels, but I think it's about wanting to argue for a changed dynamic in phase 2.

Boris will argue he will 'tackle hard' in second half, but needs more than warm words. Needs to point to leverage. /3
Read 22 tweets
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Dr Anna Jerzewska
@AnnaJerzewska
Alternative Arrangements Commission Conference - Rt Hon Stephen Barclay on the importance of trust and mutual consent for NI border solution. Something everyone can agree on before we get into the nitty gritty of the proposal #aaclondonlaunch
#aaclondonlaunch @ShankerASingham - the AAC group visited the NI region 3 times as part of their work
#aaclondonlaunch "technology exists". #blockchain mentioned less than 1h in. Look forward to hearing how to operationalise AAC recommendations later today
Read 10 tweets
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David M. Herszenhorn
@herszenhorn
#EU leaders issue five paragraph statement in long-shot bid to change 100+ minds in #UK Parliament "The Union stands by this agreement and intends to proceed with its ratification. It is not open for renegotiation.
2. The European Council reiterates that it wishes to establish as close as possible a partnership
with the United Kingdom in the future. It stands ready to embark on preparations immediately
after signature of the Withdrawal Agreement to ensure that negotiations can start as
soon as
possible after the UK’s withdrawal.
3. The European Council underlines that the backstop is intended as an insurance policy to
prevent a hard border on the island of Ireland and ensure the integrity of the Single Market. It
is the Union’s firm determination to work
Read 7 tweets

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