Thread by @pmdfoster

So. Am told in PM's #Brexit meeting David Frost told MPs there IS a plan:

The alternative to the Irish backstop he said is (wait for it) "alternative arrangements"...and the hope the EU will look on them more positively if Govt wins today.

Where to start?! 1/Thread.

Frost also said there was no point in tabling these AAs now, since the EU would shoot them down.

But the threat of 'no deal' would change their position which, as @MichelBarnier staked out at the weekend in @telegraph is that AAs must deliver 'fully open' Irish border. /2

@MichelBarnier @Telegraph AAs cannot do that, particularly if the @BorisJohnson plan is have all UK leaving the CU and SM.

Essentially we're going back to maxfac? That required 80+% exemptions.

You'll hear talk about 'authorised economic operators' - but that doesn't work for small traders /3

@MichelBarnier @Telegraph @BorisJohnson I've done so may thread on this, but recall this verdict on the Alternative Arrangements Commission from the

@MichelBarnier @Telegraph @BorisJohnson (Sorry) ...British Irish Chamber of Commerce. @BrIreCham which said these schemes "lack credibility" - later this week I'm going to publicise brilliant work explaining why further by @hayward_katy ...but the point is this: /4

https://twitter.com/pmdfoster/status/1148548061825830912?s=20

@MichelBarnier @Telegraph @BorisJohnson @BrIreCham @hayward_katy Alternative Arrangements don't work.

The lead to a trade border in Ireland, with huge costs and consequences.

The renege on the Joint Report committment to 'no infrastructure related checks and controls"

Which brings us to the nub/ 5

@MichelBarnier @Telegraph @BorisJohnson @BrIreCham @hayward_katy What Frost, Moylan, Johnson et al are saying is that there will be a trade border in Ireland as a price of #Brexit...just that it won't be a big deal, per multiple @Policy_Exchange
papers. But that, clearly is not the position of the Irish govt. Nor the EU. /6

@MichelBarnier @Telegraph @BorisJohnson @BrIreCham @hayward_katy @Policy_Exchange Which is why the UK pressure 'run down the clock' gambit is misconceived.

A 'no deal' = trade border in Ireland.

But the Johnson plan = trade border in Ireland.

What choice does that set up for @LeoVaradkar in Dublin? /7

@MichelBarnier @Telegraph @BorisJohnson @BrIreCham @hayward_katy @Policy_Exchange @LeoVaradkar He can take a 'no deal' trade border - abrupt messy, but with UK finger prints on and with the prospect of working it backwards towards the NI-specific deal that he wants.

OR a Boris deal border at the end of 14 month transition, but one with his finger prints on? /8

@MichelBarnier @Telegraph @BorisJohnson @BrIreCham @hayward_katy @Policy_Exchange @LeoVaradkar Is there an Irish Taoiseach of whatever party who would acquiesce in the economic re-partition of Ireland?

A border is a border, with frictions and costs that would reduce the quality of life those on the other side. /9

@MichelBarnier @Telegraph @BorisJohnson @BrIreCham @hayward_katy @Policy_Exchange @LeoVaradkar Leave aside that nohwere in the world has such a border (not even Sweden-Norway, which is in SM), the hard truth is that borders don't work, particularly low-visibiity ones WITHOUT THE CONSENT of those forced to use it. /10

@MichelBarnier @Telegraph @BorisJohnson @BrIreCham @hayward_katy @Policy_Exchange @LeoVaradkar Given the history of Ireland, does anyone seriously think that the Nationalist community in Ireland (and recall all the border constituencies are SF constituencies) will put their shoulders to the wheel, show 'blitz spirit' to deliver an English-imposed border? Ha! /11

@MichelBarnier @Telegraph @BorisJohnson @BrIreCham @hayward_katy @Policy_Exchange @LeoVaradkar But what about EU pressure? If @BorisJohnson pushes it to the brink, wont the Germans and the French tell 'little Leo' to button it? To knuckle under?

Well, note that @EmmanuelMacron was clear Johnson visited that the backstop was necessary to "protect stability" in Ireland /12

@MichelBarnier @Telegraph @BorisJohnson @BrIreCham @hayward_katy @Policy_Exchange @LeoVaradkar @EmmanuelMacron What value the word of the French president? Or indeed the entire European Council?

What would it mean for them, and for the entire raison d'etre of the EU (an organisation of medium sized countries that with collective weight) to 'throw the Irish under the bus?' /13

@MichelBarnier @Telegraph @BorisJohnson @BrIreCham @hayward_katy @Policy_Exchange @LeoVaradkar @EmmanuelMacron The history of this negotiation at the EU27 level, is that of the highest common denominator....because if they start to unpick it with Ireland, you quickly get into a very nasty, nay existential conversation. That is a conversation to be avoided. /14

@MichelBarnier @Telegraph @BorisJohnson @BrIreCham @hayward_katy @Policy_Exchange @LeoVaradkar @EmmanuelMacron I've written that perhaps a 5-8 year time limit on the backstop would make that conversation more difficult (v 'no deal' tomorrow) since it would be harder for Dublin to argue that that's a 'countdown' to a border poll. Since that's fair way off.

But that's not the UK gambit/15

@MichelBarnier @Telegraph @BorisJohnson @BrIreCham @hayward_katy @Policy_Exchange @LeoVaradkar @EmmanuelMacron .@BorisJohnson explicitly shut down such landing zones.

In which case Geoffrey Cox is right. The 'bin the backstop' route is a 'complete fantasy' and leads to 'no deal'. /16

@MichelBarnier @Telegraph @BorisJohnson @BrIreCham @hayward_katy @Policy_Exchange @LeoVaradkar @EmmanuelMacron Because the choice is now frame as a trade border that the Brits get blamed for....versus one (in 14 months at the end of transition) that the Irish government helped build.

Politically, that's a non-choice I suspect. The answer is no. And no deal. /17 ENDS