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Any fair reading of today in Brexit land would have to conclude that the chances of a deal are low - I'd suggest no greater than 5% by the end of October.
Recall that either or both sides have to move for there to be a deal.
We have heard no indication whatsoever that this will be the EU - regardless of the rights and wrongs of the press conference that was a sign of a negotiation not going well.
We have heard no indication whatsoever that this will be the EU - regardless of the rights and wrongs of the press conference that was a sign of a negotiation not going well.
The EU position seems to be we need a guarantee, please come up with a proposal where that isn't the backstop.
The UK position is a restatement that the backstop is a non-starter, and to talk about parts of a potential replacement. Nothing like a whole solution.
The UK position is a restatement that the backstop is a non-starter, and to talk about parts of a potential replacement. Nothing like a whole solution.
The Northern Ireland only backstop seems to have been quickly squashed as a possibility, leaving only the possibility that one or both sides will cross their red lines while claiming not to be doing so. But I think there are too many players who would notice that.
Atmospherics come and go, but fundamentally the EU are now sitting waiting for a UK proposal that if it comes at all is almost certainly something already rejected. We don't know if the UK really thinks the EU will fold, or is heading deliberately for no-deal.
No-deal on October 31st on this basis is also no-deal until there is a change of government in the UK or a change of approach from the EU (the former is more likely). If the EU's red lines hold to no-deal they'll also hold post no-deal.
So on this basis the European Council Brexit discussion on Oct 17 / 18 is one of how to respond to an extension request whenever and from who this may come. Then everything happens from October 19th when the UK PM is legally bound to send a letter.
The significance of today is then the chasm it showed between the UK and EU. Both sides can commit to being constructive, working 24/7, or being optimistic. But unless the EU no longer want an Irish border guarantee, or the UK offer one, no deal is possible. Binary. /end
PS very much agree with this
