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THREAD: The bots and trolls don't want you to hear it, but Brexit's bad for business. 'Just find new opportunities,' they chirp. 'It's just a few extra forms! No trouble at all!'
Here's why no amount of glib soundbites or Belief in Britain can wish away what's coming. 1/17
Here's why no amount of glib soundbites or Belief in Britain can wish away what's coming. 1/17
First, removing access to the single market and customs union disrupts the frictionless trade which makes it so easy for hundreds of thousands of UK businesses to trade smoothly and competitively. 2/17
Anything which makes trade more complicated and expensive makes it harder to do business. If British firms are put at a competitive disadvantage with their EU counterparts, they're in serious trouble. It's inarguable (but the trolls try anyway). 3/17
'Only 6% of UK firms trade directly with the EU, though!' they say. But their figure a) comes straight from Vote Leave, b) is an unverified estimate, and c) would still mean at least 324,000 UK firms are affected. 4/17
No firm exists in a vacuum. Even if we accept the 6% (it's likely much higher), if that 6% hit trouble, scale back operations or go bust, how many of the UK-based companies they buy from, sell to, serve or otherwise support are also affected? 5/17
The knock-on effect would be massive – reaching way beyond the mythical 6%. Hundreds upon hundreds of thousands of firms suddenly finding it harder or in some cases impossible to get the products or services they need. 6/17
The risks are obvious – restrict supply chains, complicate trade or make it more costly and you're looking at cutbacks, closures and job losses, whether you deal directly with the EU or not. 7/17
'But we can make our own new deals!' say the trolls. Sure we can. But we'll be making them on our own, from scratch and without the collective bargaining power of the EU. And they'll take years. Years. 8/17
Even when they arrive, they'll come with a whole new set of tariffs, customs arrangements and red tape – all, again, instantly making trade more costly and complex than our existing arrangements with the EU. 9/17
'But there are opportunities just waiting to be seized!' declare our optimistic Brexiters. Maybe. But for those firms losing access to trade with their nearest neighbours right now, how long does it take to build up new business relationships? 10/17
And how does a business stay afloat while it builds up an entirely new customer/supplier base? Where does the cash come from to pay wages, retrain staff or source new products/components/ingredients while starting virtually from scratch? 11/17
Where are these opportunities, anyway? Who will we be trading with and on what terms? How do we know our products and services will comply with a myriad of different regulatory frameworks? October 31 isn't far away, and we still haven't a clue. 12/17
Even the Government's getting in on the act. 'Are you ready for Brexit?' they ask. How can we be? We've got less than two months to go and we're no clearer what 'Brexit' means than we were in June 2016. Planning is virtually impossible. 13/17
'You just have to adapt,' declare our Brexiter chums. Adapt to what? They just can't say. Sadly, those of us living in the real world don't have the time or resources to prepare for an infinite number of eventualities at a moment's notice. 14/17
'In any change, there will be winners and losers,' say the Brexiters – conspicuously failing to identify who will benefit, or how. Meanwhile, any firms speaking out about the clear dangers are shouted down or accused of scaremongering. 15/17
And then, at the end, we reach the nub of it: 'If any businesses fail, they can't have been any good.' Forget all the warnings, all the appeals for caution and moderation. When the disaster finally hits it's because, apparently, we deserve it. It's our fault. 16/17
There are hundreds of thousands of good businesses out there which should be free to carry on creating jobs, boosting their communities and supporting families. They're at serious risk right now and that's entirely down to Brexit. Anyone who tells you otherwise is a liar. 17/17
Here's a brilliant thread detailing the multitude of barriers to exporting just one very specific product. Multiply that across countless business sectors and products and you get an idea of the trouble looming...
