Thread by @cath_haddon

What to look out for from Supreme Court case at 10.30- a thread

See *plenty* lawyers on here for detailed commentary on the judgment. But first effect will be political: what will govt and opposition(s) be worrying about this morning? What does it mean for what happens next...

Series recap: there are two high level questions: 1. Is proroguing Parliament something courts can make judgement on, (‘is it justiciable?’) - this also leads to qs about court’s role re both royal prerogative and making judgments that tread into area of procedures of Parl

2. Was it lawful? Depends on first q, but then comes down to multiple qs of their view on what is lawful prorogation, on what basis can it be measured, what evidence were they presented, what defence, etc etc- detail of judgment on that will be pored over for a long while.

3. How did SC split on this and what do they each say about those two questions....

What will govt be thinking about re result?

1. Do they have to un-prorogue and if so when? It’s not only the question of Parl coming back earlier than 14 Oct but also how it affects next week’s Conservative conference. Parl will be bullish, MPs would need to be in London.

2. What does judgment say about PM (even if they win, this will still be concern). Anything more on misleading Queen, ulterior motives etc will be difficult for PM. Might expect SC to be measured and careful in language on this. But anything opposition can jump on, they will

3. What might govt take away (what might other side take away) in terms of any possible SC involvement if, say, govt thought they had loophole in Benn act. Yes it’s different case entirely but everything’s connected in Brexitland.

4. What does this mean for govt political narrative re efforts to stop U.K. leaving on 31st. Victory or not they will stick to line on Oct 31 - but balancing that against respect for court’s judgment? Presumably govt have their lines ready for any outcome...

What does it mean for opposing side?

1. Does Parliament return? If so, what do the anti-no deal alliance do next? If decision means Parl stays prorogued then focus goes back to Queen’s Speech- what next move by govt will opposition parties be thinking about how to counteract?

2. How critical of govt is the result? This affects the pressure, particularly on Labour, about what to be seen to be doing, even if judgment is for govt. If goes against govt- and implies misleading Queen- do they now consider no confidence motion?

3. How much does this change use of SC as tool for political opposition? Regardless of result- will this case encourage opposition parties to want to use courts more as part of their armoury?

What it means for constitution?

1. Lots of debate regardless of result about the future role of courts, codifying constitution, parliamentary practices etc - but in first instance the SC answering this question of whether it is justiciable. What precedent will they set?

2. Even the cases being brought and the attention it has generated will add to question of who the constitutional authority is in the country. (See above on SC as tool for political opposition)

3. How does it affect future prorogation? This one is longer term. Perhaps if this Parl sticks around they would try and change how they are prorogued. But what would future majority govt do? What does putting anything in legislation look like?

4. Where is the next constitutional flashpoint? Another prorogation?Defeat on Queen’s Speech? Implementation of Benn Act? FTPA? ... the list is long....

What does it mean for Brexit?

We are currently due to leave on Oct 31 and the same four options apply as a year ago: deal, no deal, extend, revoke. Other than that, who knows what comes next....

FIN.... for now