Don't look now, but the Indian Ocean Dipole has just skyrocketed to a 4-year high value of +1.5C above normal. This falls into the top 1% of historical IOD values dating back to 1981 
The stationary component of the Vp200 anomaly forecast from the ECMWF Weekly model is no doubt due to the high amplitude +IOD signature in ocean temperature anomalies.
Some things this means: Australia likely will see drier than normal conditions this October. For European impacts, I discussed what this could mean in my latest Week 3-5 outlook report that is for subscribing clients.
