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, 3 tweets, 1 min read
1/ "I asked: ‘What [average annual] returns do you tell your institutional clients you will earn for them?’ He said ‘20%.’ I couldn’t believe it, because he knows that’s impossible. But he said ‘Charlie, if I gave them a lower number they wouldn’t give me any money to invest!’"
2/ “If you take the modern world where people are trying to teach you to come in and trade actively in stocks, well I regard that as roughly equivalent to trying to induce a bunch of young people to start off on heroin.” cnbc.com/2019/02/14/cha…
story 1/: jasonzweig.com/a-fireside-cha…
3/ “We’ve done a lot of preaching [about investing] to not much effect.” “Teaching people formulas that don’t really work in real life is a disaster for the world.” “To the extent you’re working on it, you’re on the side of angels, but lots of luck.” “I failed with my relatives."
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Tren Griffin
@trengriffin
A Costco rotisserie chicken is the equivalent of "free" trading at a broker. Like the hot dog/soda combo at the Costco food court, it's a substitute for marketing.

Bezos: Once upon a time businesses devoted 30% to great service and 70% to shouting about it. That's now inverted.
Costco sells memberships. Members get a great deal on a chicken and as a result Costco spends less on advertising. Jeff Brotman, Costco’s co-founder once said Bezos doesn’t have to make a profit or break even on services like Prime. “He’s building great loyalty with that."
Charlie Munger said at the 2014 Berkshire meeting: “Costco is unbelievable. It is against the human nature of many entrepreneurial people to get price down and service up…” Costco members getting access to great prices is, well, fantastic. google.com/amp/s/25iq.com…
Read 3 tweets
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Tren Griffin
@trengriffin
1/ "To perform present value analysis, you must predict the future, yet the future is not reliably predictable.” “A perfect business in terms of the simplicity of valuation would be an annuity. Real businesses, even the best ones, are unfortunately not annuities.” Seth Klarman
2/ "I keep going back to what Charlie Munger said to me, which is none of this is easy, and anybody who thinks it is easy is stupid. It is just not easy. There are many layers to this, and you just have to think well.” Howard Marks
3/ People like John Malone, Craig McCaw, Jeff Bezos and Jim Sinegal discovered that you can "think different" and find quasi annuities and grow value in ways that others didn't yet know about. They had analytical, behavioral and informational edges over other entrepreneurs.
Read 3 tweets
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Tren Griffin
@trengriffin
1/ "How many customers am I going to acquire? How long are they going to stay with me? How many orders are they going to place and how much are they going to spend? All of that trickles its way down into a very standard DCF (discounted cash flow) model." knowledge.wharton.upenn.edu/article/findin…
2/ "In SaaS setting, it might make a lot of sense to spend a very large amount of money to acquire a customer [*if*] you know that if you bring them in the door, you’ll make many multiples of that even though, on a GAAP basis, you will be unprofitable."
zuora.com/2018/12/04/sub…
3/ Damodaran: “The problem in valuation is not that there are not enough models to value an asset, it is that there are too many."

F&M: "Valuing Subscription-based Businesses..."It is clear that the discounted cash flow approach is the most appropriate." poseidon01.ssrn.com/delivery.php?I…
Read 3 tweets

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Windthin ~ Savage Rebel Scum & Snark Jedi🇵🇷🌊
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1/16 It has begun. The GOP is spinning that the sole transcript Trump says he will release is more important than the #WhistleblowerComplaint as a tactic to insist everything should ride on this one supposed piece of evidence.

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HANK’S GIANT WEREWOLF C⭕️CK 🐺
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When my son was only 5, he saw me working on the car, under the dash on the retractable antenna. He ask, "Dadda, can I help?" Of course, I said yes, happy he wanted to be with me. He said, "I'll be right back." and got his new toy tool belt he'd gotten for his birthday. It...
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Cory Archibald
@CMArchibald
THREAD: Are you excited about @Ocasio2018's overwhelming victory tonight?

Good. You should be.

Now here's what you do next.

⬇️⬇️⬇️⬇️⬇️⬇️⬇️⬇️⬇️
The first thing I need you to understand is that @Ocasio2018 didn't win because of a viral campaign ad (though it was a pretty kickass ad). She won because a tiny band of fiercely dedicated people BELIEVED she could win.

That's your first task: #Believe
.@Ocasio2018 also didn't crush Crowley because the establishment media suddenly decided to pay attention 3 weeks ago.

Team Ocasio, along with @BrandNew535 & @justicedems who jointly launched her campaign, have worked around the clock to make this, and other victories possible.
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JoanneDavis
@JoanneDavis
1) We are each a spark of the Divine. Worthy as ever. And yet, sometimes we lose sight of our inherent value. That inner voice can become muffled by the narratives we play over and over in our mind. What are the messages that wear us down? In this moment, let’s challenge them.
2) What has caused us to forget that we are deserving? In this moment, let’s remind ourselves that our capacity for growth and strength is incredible. How can we reframe our experiences and begin viewing our lives from a more elevated perspective?
3) Are we ready to stop buying into old thoughts patterns and start trusting more empowering ones? Know this – there is so much more in store for you. The more we begin to believe this, with God’s help, the sooner we will receive what we hope, pray, and strive for. #believe
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