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Daniela Gabor
@DanielaGabor
, 3 tweets, 2 min read Read on Twitter
this tells you how problematic it is to evaluate central banks on their 'inflation-target' performance alone.
It is a criteria of the 2000s, when Greenspan told us that price stability will deliver everything, including financial stability.
it is a criteria provided by pre-crisis DSGE models with their 'pretence of knowledge' that ignored macro-finance trends nber.org/papers/w16429
Financial stability > price stability during bad times #DraghisLaw
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Daniela Gabor
@DanielaGabor
anyone knows if WB triggered the “Partial Risk Guarantee” for Nigeria's Azura-Edo plant? google doesnt know :)
also, while on this, anyone knows whether Nigeria & WB have moved ahead with Qua Iboe power plant? punchng.com/foreign-invest…
throwing questions into the ether: has Blackstone sold Black Rhino?
Read 4 tweets
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Daniela Gabor
@DanielaGabor
Mario Draghi is an elegant man: no jabs at JC Trichet for that legacy of 'very conservative central bank' that eroded credibility of ECB as firefighter ft.com/content/b59a4a…
he is also an optimist: the sovereignists may have lost the battle for the euro, but it is unclear who won it.
That battle is not only fought on the monetary front, and he knows it well when he calls for supranational fiscal policies.
full transcript far more fascinating because it brings macro-finance into standard narrative of nation states w different current account deficits and public debt levels (that FT piece doesnt really challenge) ecb.europa.eu/press/inter/da…
Read 7 tweets
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Daniela Gabor
@DanielaGabor
now that we all, including @IMFNews, do virtue signalling on #ClimateCrisis and Amazon, let's talk about Ecuador.

Ecuador has a long standing legal dispute Chevron (owner of Texaco) over environmental damage to Amazonian indigenous populations and environment.
30,000 locals, including five Amazonian tribes, began lawsuit against Texaco in 1993. Plaintiffs say that Texaco knowingly dumped 18bn gallons (68bn litres) of toxic waste water and spilled 17m gallons of crude oil into north-east Ecuador rainforest bbc.co.uk/news/world-lat…
A local court, and then the Ecuadorian Supreme Court in 2015, dictated heavy fines against Chevron.
But International Tribunal in the Hague found that Ecuador had denied Chevron fair access to justice (???) while leaving the door open for plaintiffs to bring case to the Hague
Read 8 tweets

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Yorick de Mombynes
@ydemombynes
My 140 favorite quotes from The Ethics of Money Production (2008), by Jörg Guido Hülsmann
1. “#Money is omnipresent in modern life, yet the production of money does not seem to warrant any moral assessment”. J.G.Hülsmann
2. “To be sure, central bank representatives are lecturing the public on the importance of business #ethics; but their concerns do not seem to apply to themselves”. J.G.Hülsmann
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Per Bylund
@PerBylund
It is not #automation that scares people, it is #inflation. Might sound odd, but what I mean is that the promise of a fully (or at least a more extensively) automated future seems like a threat because modern currencies are fundamentally inflationary. When we work and save, the
purchasing power of our saved funds diminishes with time. This is not a natural state of things, as many nowadays would assume. It is created. The reason prices tend to go up over time is that money loses its purchasing power. If you think about it, shouldn't innovations and
competition mean we become more productive and thus can get the same benefits (goods, services) at lower cost? That is exactly what is happening, and it is evident in some industries like hi-tech (smart phones, tablets, PCs). Wherever there are private businesses producing and
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Beatrice Cherrier
@Undercoverhist
1/ Frank Smet gives #ESHET2019 keynote on monetary and fiscal policy around effective lower bound (research w/ Coenen & Montes-Galdon).

Brief summary of his interesting protagonist "history-of-recent-macro-since-I-was-a-grad"
2/ Smets studied at Yale in late 80s/early 90s. Eclectic department: Salai-Martin, Shapiro (then working on menus costs w/ Mankiw), Grandmont (chaotic dynamics), Shiller (irrational exuberance), Roubini (“who supposedly predicted the financial crisis, maybe w/ the wrong theory”)
3/ "this diversity was both exciting & confusing," Smets reflects.

Then went to BIS, witnessed coming together of RBC & NK’s focus on stickiness, monopolistic competition, leading to Woodford-Rotemberg-Gali 3-equations canonical model
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gaines dempsey
@gainesdempsey
Inflation in terms of Gold: To me this puts everything in perspective
#inflation #federalreserve @DiMartinoBooth
1) in 1970 the minimum wage was $1.45 per hour and an ounce of gold was worth roughly $39 per ounce. So it took 27 hours to earn an ounce of gold.
2) 2019 minimum wage at $7.25 per hour and an ounce of gold at roughly $1,325 per ounce. This equates to 183 hours to earn an ounce of gold.
3) Todays Gold price of $1,325 per ounce divided by the 1970 hours to earn an ounce (27 hours) equals roughly $50.
Read 5 tweets
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Millennial Macro
@MillennialMacro
#demographics #militaries #economies #currencies
#USA
- Best demographics
- Largest military
- Largest economy
- Most used currency
- Liquid financial markets
- Open capital account
- Rule of law
- Best geography
- Can be self sufficient if required
- Not trade dependent
#USA
Top trade partners as of 30 June 2018:
- China: 15.2% (strategic competitor)
- Canada: 15.1%
- Mexico: 14.6%
- Japan: 5.1%
- Germany: 4.4%

The next 10 years could result in the below:
- Mexico (25%)
- Canada (20%
- Japan (7%)
- South Korea (5%)
- Great Britain (4%)
#USA
Bring the manufacturing (jobs) home while negatively impacting China's economy.
forbes.com/sites/kenrapoz…
cebglobal.com/talentdaily/au…
irishtimes.com/business/econo…
Read 338 tweets
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Shawn Sebastian
@shawnsebastian
Yesterday @NickTimiraos broke the news that John Williams is the frontrunner for president of the @NewYorkFed.

If true, a compromised process ignored the public & resulted in a white, male insider, more hawkish than Dudley, and an ineffective regulator.

wsj.com/articles/san-f…
I told @bencasselman that selecting Williams for the @NewYorkFed would be "deeply disappointing and a missed opportunity.”

This is the most powerful position that Trump doesn't control.

We deserve better.

nytimes.com/2018/03/24/bus…
In this thread I'll cover:
1. How the process was compromised by Wall St and shut out the public
2. Why the @NewYorkFed matters for our jobs and wages.
3. Williams's history of underestimating maximum employment
4. How Williams failed to stop @WellsFargo
5. What we can do next
Read 32 tweets

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